In the fourth quarter, the steel market will rise first and then fall
Nov. 06, 2020
On October 21, the 19th Summit Forum on the Development Situation of the Iron and Steel Industry Chain (South China) in 2020 was held in Shenzhen, Guangdong Province. Leaders, experts and scholars from steel and coal coke production companies, financial institutions, scientific research institutes, steel suppliers, e-commerce platforms and other units participated in the conference, and focused on the development situation of the steel industry, the trend of steel prices and the "winter storage" of steel companies Exchanges and other topics to discuss the market situation of mining, coal, coke, and steel in the post-epidemic era.
At the meeting, Wu Wenwen, the founder and chairman of the Steel House website, said that since the beginning of this year, steel prices have fallen and then risen. From the current point of view, the rebar market continues to perform well. He predicts that in the fourth quarter, steel production and imports will decrease month-on-month, and steel demand will continue to improve; iron ore prices will fluctuate from a high level and fall back; the supply of coke and coking coal will be tightened, and coal coke market prices will remain strong; domestic market funds Supply will continue to be loose. He predicted that the steel market in the fourth quarter will rise first and then fall.
From the perspective of the raw material market, Wu Wenwen said that the current demand for raw materials and fuels for steel in my country is strong. Under the influence of policies such as environmental protection, elimination of outdated production capacity, "coal-based production" and "steel-based coke" policies, it is expected that the overall coke supply for the whole year will be biased tight. At the same time, he believes that the coking coal market supply situation will shift from relatively loose to basically balanced. The current national control measures on imported coal will have a certain impact on the supply of coking coal in the autumn and winter of this year.
In addition, in the first half of this year, due to the impact of the new crown pneumonia epidemic in major iron ore suppliers such as Brazil, domestic scrap supply has stagnated, the domestic iron ore market supply is tight, port stocks have fallen sharply, and iron ore prices have risen sharply. Currently, the supply of imported iron ore has been restored. Wu article believes that considering that my country's steel industry faces problems such as the decline in demand for raw materials and fuels in winter and the "winter storage" of iron ore, it is expected that iron ore supply will be tight in the later period.
Wan Yue, Secretary of the Party Committee of Shaogang Songshan Marketing Center, pointed out that since the beginning of this year, in the face of the greater impact of the new crown pneumonia epidemic, the Chinese government has introduced a series of stable growth measures. my country’s economy has shown restorative growth. The economic growth rate in the first three quarters has changed from Turning from negative to positive demonstrates the strong resilience and vitality of our economy. my country's steel industry has resolutely implemented the important decisions and deployments of the Party Central Committee and the State Council, and actively responded. The industry has maintained stable operation and the steel market has generally improved. This has made important contributions to the stable operation of my country's economy and the acceleration of the resumption of production in various industries. In the first three quarters of this year, my country's steel market generally showed a "V"-shaped rebound, and the prices of steel and black products fluctuated upward. He predicts that the steel market will continue to recover in the fourth quarter.