The first is the dual energy consumption control policy. Since the National Development and Reform Commission issued the "Barometer of Completion of Energy Consumption Dual Control Targets in Various Regions in the First Half of 2021" on August 12 this year, some provinces have begun to increase their efforts to control energy consumption, leading to a further decline in steel production in the corresponding regions. Wang Jianhua believes that there is no possibility of relaxing the policy of dual control of energy consumption before all provinces meet the standards.

Followed by the “dual control” policy of steel production capacity and output. According to estimates, if the steel industry wants to achieve the goal of "no increase in crude steel output year-on-year" by the end of November this year, the average monthly crude steel output from September to November will remain at the level of 78.51 million tons. "Even if the energy consumption double control meets the standard, the crude steel reduction output does not meet the standard, then the production restriction policy must be implemented, and vice versa." He said.

Finally, there is a policy of limited production in autumn and winter. The contents of the "Autumn and Winter Air Pollution Comprehensive Management Plan for Key Regions 2021-2022 (Draft for Comment)" issued by the Ministry of Ecology and Environment are different from previous years. There are more than 60 cities in the south and southern Henan.

Wang Jianhua said that during the autumn and winter production restrictions in the past few years, the scale of production restrictions estimated according to the issued documents was basically between 30 million tons and 40 million tons. According to the actual production restrictions, the effect of substantial production reductions was not obvious. , But this year’s autumn and winter production restrictions will be very different, and the effect will be much more obvious.

"At present, there are some bearish voices in the market. If you look at these views from a single point in time, there may be some truth, but if you analyze the overall situation in depth, it may not be necessary." Wang Jianhua said frankly. Some believe that real estate regulation has a greater impact on steel demand, and some believe that the "dual control" policy has increased the uncertainty of the market supply rhythm, and some believe that the futures market is under pessimistic expectations.

Among these bearish voices, what Wang Jianhua believes the most is the need to change is the view that “steel profits are high and steel prices should fall”. "According to statistics, in the first half of this year, the total net profit of 36 domestic steel listed companies reached 76.2 billion yuan. The average sales profit rate of the member companies of the China Iron and Steel Association in the first eight months of this year was only 6.2%. Compared with the net profit of 79.5 billion yuan, it is also ashamed to compare with some foreign steel companies. What's more, Chinese steel companies are under the control of supply-side structural reforms and the'dual control' policy." Wang Jianhua said bluntly, "That kind of" The traditional concept that steel prices should fall as soon as the profits of steel companies get better, at least at some point should be adjusted, including the concept of'the price of raw materials should fall, and the price of finished products should also fall' should also be changed."