On June 18, Ren Qingping, chairman of Shanghai wubo steel structure materials Co., Ltd., said in an interview with reporters that the momentum for the continued rise of steel prices in the second half of the year is not expected to be sufficient.

"In recent years, China's steel industry has eliminated a number of backward production capacity through supply side structural reform, and has achieved certain results, but in the process of capacity replacement, new capacity has also been added." "At present, China's crude steel production has exceeded 1 billion tons, and the actual capacity may be far more than 1billion tons, and the steel guarantee capacity is very sufficient," Ren said. The supply of steel resources is loose, which is difficult to support the continuous rise of steel prices. "

From the aspect of demand, as the main steel consumption field, the real estate industry has issued a series of regulatory policies in succession, following the general tone of "no real estate speculation". Recently, the Ministry of finance, the Ministry of natural resources, the State Administration of Taxation and the people's Bank of China jointly issued a notice that the government non tax income of the state-owned land use right transfer income, special income of mineral resources, sea area use fee and non resident Island use gold collected by the natural resources department will be transferred to the tax department for collection.

Renqingping said that for local governments, the transfer of state-owned land use right will be more strict and the supervision will be more severe in the future, and will reduce the operation space for local government and urban construction investment to operate land, and form certain restrictions on the land development business of local governments. This will bring new challenges for real estate developers, and the development situation of the real estate industry is not optimistic. Renqingping expects that the phenomenon of overheated investment in the real estate industry will "cool down" in the later period, and the strength of steel demand will also decrease accordingly, especially on the trend of construction steel market such as threaded steel and wire rod.

At the same time, the operation of the automobile industry is not satisfactory. As the "chip shortage" intensifies, the domestic automobile production and sales volume have both declined. According to the data of China Automobile Industry Association, in May, the output and sales volume of China's automobiles reached 2.04 million and 2.28 million respectively, respectively, with a decrease of 8.7% and 5.5% respectively on a year-on-year basis, down 6.8% and 3.1% respectively. According to the statistics of the joint meeting on passenger vehicle market information, the average daily retail sales volume of domestic automobile market reached 25000 vehicles in the first week of June (June 1-June 4), down 7% year on year and 26% on month basis. The situation of automobile industry production and marketing is not optimistic, which will have a certain impact on the demand of the plate market.

"The reason why the continuous increase of steel price is insufficient is that the situation of steel export in China is becoming more and more strict." Renqingping said. On June 3, the president of the United States signed an administrative order to blacklist 59 Chinese enterprises including Huawei, China core international and China Aerospace Technology Group on the basis of the so-called "response to threats to Chinese military enterprises", and prohibited the United States from conducting investment transactions with listed companies. Renqingping said that the intensified trade friction between China and the United States will have a negative impact on domestic steel exports.

In addition, the recent anti-dumping cases of foreign steel exports to China have increased. According to incomplete statistics, in the first quarter of this year, China trade relief information network released 24 foreign anti-dumping and countervailing investigations on Chinese steel products, involving cold rolled rolled plates, prestressed concrete steel strands, non refilled cylinders, stainless steel coils, stainless steel welded pipes, hot rolled steel plates, H-shaped steel and other steel products. Since June 1, the column "export response" of China trade relief information network has issued 10 announcements on anti-dumping and countervailing of foreign steel products to China, involving steel products such as steel cables, corrosion resistant steel plates, threaded steel, medium and thick plates, steel bars, stainless steel washing tanks, galvanized steel plates, etc. According to the General Administration of customs, in May, China exported 5.271 million tons of steel, a 33.86% decrease on a month-on-month basis. Renqingping believes that these factors will have a great impact on China's steel export, and there are many uncertainties in the later stage of steel export situation.

Ren expects that in the third quarter, the country will usher in extreme weather such as high temperature and rainy season, flood season, typhoon and so on, and steel demand will enter the off-season. Affected by this, steel prices are easy to fall and difficult to rise.

From the macro policy perspective, it also does not support the continuous rise of steel prices. On June 9, the national development and Reform Commission held a working forum, and again proposed to closely track the trend of commodity prices and to do a good job in price forecast and early warning. Therefore, the policy orientation of the state to stabilize commodity prices has not changed. Under the macro-control policy, it is difficult for steel prices to rise and fall again.

"For steel traders, steel operations in the second half of the year may be more difficult." In the interview, Ren Qingping told reporters about the difficulties encountered by steel traders in their operation.

"Recently, in the bidding of steel supply, the threshold for the downstream users to win the bid for private steel trade enterprises has been raised. In addition, some downstream terminals believe that direct purchase from steel enterprises is lower than that purchased in the spot market, so they are reluctant to order from steel traders. " Renqingping said.

"In fact, the price of steel traders buying from steel companies is basically not much different from the price given to end users," he explained. Nowadays, steel prices are very transparent, and steel traders are more making money for services, such as steel distribution, processing, transportation, information provision, etc. "