The market is more cautious in purchasing coal spot prices fell slightly
Nov. 12, 2020
The market coal price continued to climb to near the "policy red line", and the downstream acceptance of high coal prices began to decline, coupled with the rumors of Guangdong's relaxation of some imported coal, and the end of thermal coal futures, the market's wait-and-see sentiment gradually increased, making coal prices stop rising Temporarily stable. After the market continued to wait and see, the seller was still unable to carry the buyer, and the higher-level measures required to increase supply and limit prices were taking effect, and all coal types at the port fell slightly.
At present, the demand for main production sites and land sales is increasing; coupled with the maintenance of heating demand at a certain level, most coal mines have good sales, low inventories, and stable prices. This week, with strict security checks and active purchases during the heating period, coal prices in production areas will still be supported in the short term.
On the downstream side, the current power plant inventory remains at a relatively high level, and the daily consumption remains at a medium-to-low level. On November 1, the inventory of key power plants nationwide rose to 102.14 million tons, with 28 days available, and the number of coal stocks increased by 5 million tons over the same period last year. From the perspective of coal storage and daily consumption in coastal power plants, neither coal storage nor daily consumption has reached a high level, and there is still storage space. The restrictions on imported coal are conducive to the improvement of the domestic market. Some users who used to pull Australian coal have found another way to inquire about goods at northern ports, which has increased the amount of coal discharged into northern ports. Imported coal in October decreased by 46% year-on-year. From the data point of view, the country is determined to restrict imports, and some power plants have exhausted their coal import quotas. In the last two months of this year, users in coastal areas have shifted their focus to the domestic market, boosting the enthusiasm of power plants to move north to the north despite the low daily consumption and staggered production by energy-consuming companies.
Recently, the policy of guaranteeing supply and limiting prices has become stronger. In the past few days, the average daily transportation volume of the Daqin line was 1.25 million tons. After the detour stopped, the transportation volume of the Tanghu line was around 230,000 tons, which was maintained at an above-medium level as a whole. As for northern ports, the port inventory is low, and traders' quotations have not changed temporarily. Although the railways have started to increase, due to the normal impact of major ports, the accumulation of port inventory has been slow. In the Bohai Rim ports, low-sulfur Jinbei coal and Mongolian coal are seriously out of stock.
After the state introduced measures to ensure supply and stabilize prices, market transactions have weakened compared with the previous period, spot quotations have slightly loosened, and actual transactions have not been many. Over time, the upstream and downstream supply-demand relationship may be reversed, the market mentality will change, and coal prices will decline. It took too long for the market coal price to rise to the red zone, and some power plants in Guangdong liberalized the quota of 2 million tons of imported coal. News of measures such as national guarantee of supply, increase in transportation, and underpricing have continued to intensify the downstream wait-and-see sentiment. The spot coal price has played a certain role in hindering it, and it is inevitable that coal prices will fall at a high level.