Wang Hanshuang, general manager of the coke division of the Xuyang Group Marketing Corporation, said that at present, the resumption of production and work in various industries is in good condition, steel production and demand are booming, the blast furnace operating rate continues to be at a high level, and the gradual implementation of the coking capacity reduction policy has made coke in short supply. "Affected by the suspension of Australian coal imports, winter storage and transportation, the overall supply and demand of coke in the fourth quarter will remain tight, and this trend may continue for one to two years." Wang Hanshuang said.

Wang Hanshuang said that 2020 is the year of capacity replacement. It is estimated that 44.02 million tons of new (replacement) coking capacity will be added (replacement), 68.69 million tons of outdated capacity will be eliminated, and the net capacity will be reduced to 24.67 million tons; it is expected to add (replace) coking capacity of 50 million tons in 2021. , The replacement and elimination of production capacity of about 50 million tons; production capacity will basically remain stable after 2022. Wang Hanshuang predicts that the annual coke output in 2020 will fall to around 460 million tons, a drop of 2.3% year-on-year. "At this stage, the ratio of blast furnace capacity utilization rate to coking capacity utilization rate has increased significantly, which shows that coke demand is growing faster than supply growth. It is expected that coke prices in the fourth quarter will generally show a trend of strong volatility, which is expected to hit a high this year. Under the influence of the continuous promotion of production capacity policies, the rebound in coke prices has a certain degree of sustainability." Wang Hanshuang said.

Ding Guoping, assistant to the general manager of the raw materials division of Hangzhou Heat Union, said that the fourth quarter coke supply is expected to be in a phased tight situation. With the release of new capacity in May next year, the phased tension of coke will be relieved. At the same time, although coke prices have fallen this year, due to the sharp drop in coking coal prices, coal blending costs have fallen sharply, and coke profits have not decreased but increased.

Zhang Qiusheng, head of the Nanjing Iron and Steel Marketing Department and chief analyst, pointed out that from the supply side, the coke industry is in a stage of "net capacity reduction"; from the demand side, my country’s epidemic control is better, and the blast furnace operating rate is relatively high. The demand for coke is large, but the current coke inventory is already at a historical low level and will slowly rise in the later period. “At present, the concentration of the coke industry is gradually increasing, and the price of coke is within a reasonable range, but from the point of view of the profit of the industrial chain, the profit of the coking plant is at a high level." Zhang Qiusheng believes that profit differentiation is not long-term and will gradually tend to balance.