With the frequent implementation of the policy of ensuring supply and price stabilization, and starting from mid-to-late August, coal has gradually entered the traditional off-season for consumption, and thermal coal prices have shown a trend of correction. However, industry insiders believe that the tight coal supply pattern has not been completely reversed, and the follow-up is expected to be "not short in the off-season." With the arrival of the peak of coal storage in winter, a new round of replenishment is about to start, the coal market will reappear both supply and demand, and coal prices may fluctuate at a high level throughout the year.

Affected by a variety of factors, coal prices have continued to run at a high level since the beginning of this year. At the end of June, the comprehensive transaction price of 5,500 kcal thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port was 819 yuan/ton, a year-on-year increase of 274 yuan/ton. After entering the peak period of summer coal consumption, coal prices continued to rise all the way. Entering August, the price of 5,500 kcal thermal coal at the port has exceeded 1,000 yuan.

In this context, the policy of ensuring supply and stabilizing prices continues to increase. The National Development and Reform Commission and the Energy Administration recently jointly issued a notice requiring 5 provinces and regions including Inner Mongolia, Shanxi, Shaanxi, Ningxia, and Xinjiang to extend the formalities for 15 coal mines that have been suspended due to joint trial operation. The 15 coal mines involved a total production capacity of 43.5 million. Tons/year, all production has resumed, and it is expected that the daily output can be stably increased by 150,000 tons. Major coal-producing provinces such as Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi and Heilongjiang have also successively held coal supply guarantee meetings, taking multiple measures to increase coal supply.

A series of policies to ensure supply and stabilize prices have gradually become effective. The dispatch data released by the National Development and Reform Commission on the 11th showed that on August 10, the national unified power plant supplied 7.4 million tons of coal, a record high in summer, an increase of nearly 600,000 tons from the previous normal level; coal consumption was 7.2 million tons, which was nearly 30 tons lower than the peak. Million tons. In terms of production, the daily output of coal in Shanxi, Shaanxi and Mongolia increased by nearly 800,000 tons from the same period in July.

"From the actual situation of the market, the combined effect of policy force, imports hitting a new high this year, and price cuts in production areas have worked together. In the past week, market prices have peaked and fallen, and the overall decline is dominated by a slow decline," said Qi Fu, an analyst at Qinhuangdao Coal Network.

According to data, as of August 13, the market price of 5,500 kcal power coal in Qinhuangdao Port closed at 1052.5 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton on a week-on-week basis. Coal prices in Datong, Shanxi, Yulin, Shaanxi, Ordos, Inner Mongolia and other producing areas also appeared. Decline ranging from 18 yuan to 29 yuan.

The Essence Securities analysis report pointed out that starting from mid-to-late August, coal has gradually entered the traditional off-season for consumption, and demand has begun to show signs of decline, and power plant procurement has slowed down, resulting in a slight drop in coal prices in production areas. However, the increase on the supply side is limited. Some coal mines in the Shenfu area have suspended production due to overproduction and environmental protection issues, which hedges against the increase in production in Ordos at the early stage. On the demand side, although power plant procurement slows down, September and October are the peak seasons for downstream cement, chemical, and steel production. In particular, some chemicals and cements in the early stage are affected by power curtailment and the output is limited, and the operating rate is expected to rebound in the later period. Superimposing the current social inventory is at a low level since the beginning of this year, and the overall price is likely to rise but never fall. Recently, due to seasonal decline in demand, the tight supply pattern has eased, but it has not been reversed.

Guosheng Securities analyst Zhang Jinming believes that the supply guarantee policy has been effective. The coal production in the main producing areas continues to increase, and the overall supply will increase compared with July. The port market sentiment is weak, and short-term bearish expectations increase. In addition to rigid demand, other markets receive coal in downstream markets. With declining willingness, short-term prices will continue a weak downward trend, but coal for heating in the Northeast will still support prices. There is still demand for replenishment in the superimposed portion of rigid demand, and it is expected that prices will not fall smoothly. The following winter coal storage peak is coming soon, seasonal hydropower is gradually falling, power plant inventories continue to be low, a new round of restocking is about to start, the coal market will reappear both supply and demand, and coal prices may fluctuate at a high level throughout the year.