After the "May Day" holiday, the price of cold and hot rolled coils in the domestic market rose again. On May 7, Li Zhongshuang, general manager of Shanghai Ruikun Metal Materials Co., Ltd., said in an interview with a reporter from China Metallurgical News that the price of cold and hot rolled coils will run at a high level in the short term, which does not rule out the possibility of continuing to rise in the later period.

According to Li Zhongshuang, last week (May 3 to May 7), the price of hot-rolled coil in the Shanghai market rose 230 yuan/ton, and the price of cold-rolled coil rose 210 yuan/ton. The fundamentals of the market present a good situation with the release of downstream demand, fair market transactions, and declining steel inventories. However, due to steel prices rising again, the market fear of heights intensified. In the past April, the prices of cold and hot rolled coils in the Shanghai market have risen sharply. The price of 1.0mm cold plate produced by Anshan Iron and Steel rose from 5950 yuan/ton at the end of March to 6,280 yuan/ton at the end of April, an increase of 330 yuan/ton; the price of 5.5mm×1500mm hot coil produced by Shougang increased from 5380 yuan/ton at the end of March To 5770 yuan/ton at the end of April, an increase of 390 yuan/ton.

In the last trading week before May Day (April 26 to April 30), the price of domestic hot-rolled coils ended with a sharp rise. Among them, East China rose from 130 yuan/ton to 220 yuan/ton, Central and South China rose from 110 yuan/ton to 160 yuan/ton, North China rose from 80 yuan/ton to 120 yuan/ton, and Northeast China rose from 50 yuan/ton to 90 yuan. Yuan/ton, the western region rose by 110 Yuan/ton to 240 Yuan/ton. The price of cold-rolled coils has risen equally.

Li Zhongshuang believes that from the current market supply, demand, cost and other factors, the price of cold and hot rolled coils may still rise in the short term.

First, the effective demand of the terminal still has strong resilience. From the perspective of the production and sales of the main users of cold and hot rolled coils, downstream users generally show a boom in production and sales. Statistics show that in the first quarter of this year, the total retail sales of consumer goods in the domestic automobile category increased by 65.6% year-on-year, and the total retail sales of consumer goods such as household appliances and audio-visual equipment increased by 41.4% year-on-year. In the first quarter, domestic automobile production and sales reached 6.352 million and 6.484 million, an increase of 81.7% and 75.6% respectively year-on-year; 357,000 vehicles were exported, an increase of 74.6% year-on-year. Among them, the automobile production and sales volume in March reached 2.462 million and 2.526 million, respectively, an increase of 71.6% and 74.9% year-on-year. In the first four months, the cumulative sales of my country's heavy truck market exceeded 730,000, a year-on-year increase of 57%. In April, my country's heavy-duty truck market has set a monthly sales record for the 13th consecutive time.

Li Zhongshuang said that in May, affected by domestic demand, consumer confidence has increased, and the auto and home appliance markets are expected to continue to rebound. Therefore, the market demand for cold and hot rolled coils will remain strong and tough, supporting high steel prices.

The second is the decline in inventory, and there is little pressure on market supply. Recently, the inventory of cold and hot rolled coils has continued to decline. According to the data, as of the end of April, in the 35 major cities across the country, the stock of hot-rolled coils reached 2.425 million tons, a decrease of 34,200 tons on a week-on-week basis, a decrease of 1.39%; the inventory of cold-rolled coils reached 1.20.15 million tons, a decrease of 3,200 from the previous week. Tons, down 0.27%. Due to the continued decline in inventory, the supply pressure on the cold and hot rolled coil market has further eased, and the sales pressure of merchants is not large, and the willingness to raise prices is strong. This will largely support the high price of cold and hot rolled coil in the later period.

Third, rigid cost support will curb the decline in steel prices. Recently, the prices of raw materials and fuels such as iron ore, coke, and scrap steel have remained high. The price of imported iron ore has exceeded the US$200/ton mark. The transaction price of metallurgical coke has also risen by RMB 100/ton to RMB 120/ton, and the price of scrap steel. Keep going higher. As the prices of raw materials and fuels have risen sharply as a whole, the production costs of steel companies have risen, and their profit margins have been compressed. In order to alleviate cost pressures, steel companies generally raised the ex-factory prices of steel products. Some steel companies raised the ex-factory prices of cold and hot rolled coils in May by 150 yuan/ton to 400 yuan/ton. "Under this circumstance, the purchase cost of cold and hot rolled coils put on the market in May will increase. With rigid cost support, the market prices of cold and hot rolled coils are likely to rise but never fall in the short term." Li Zhongshuang said.