"In March, the cold and hot rolled coil market showed a stable and positive trend, with prices rising steadily. Operators expressed expectations for the market outlook." On April 2, Li Zhongshuang, general manager of Shanghai Ruikun Metal Materials Co., Ltd., was interviewed by reporters. Analyze and forecast the "Golden Three and Silver Four" cold and hot rolled coil market, and stated that the market price of cold and hot rolled coil will rise steadily in the short term, and there will be no significant decline in the market.

According to Li Zhongshuang, since March, the cold and hot rolled coil market has generally been in a volatile upward channel. Taking the Shanghai market as an example, the price of 1.0mm cold plate produced by Anshan Iron and Steel rose from 5,820 yuan/ton at the beginning of March to 5,920 yuan/ton at the end of March, an increase of 100 yuan/ton; the price of 5.75mm hot coil produced by Shougang increased from 4840 yuan/ton. The ton rose to 5330 yuan/ton, an increase of 490 yuan/ton. From March 29th to April 2nd, the price of hot-rolled coils in the Shanghai market rose by 110 yuan/ton, and the price of cold-rolled coils rose by 10 yuan/ton. The price increase of hot-rolled coil is significantly greater than that of cold-rolled coil. The effective demand of downstream terminals is normally released, and traders are basically stepping up to digest low-priced resources.

Li Zhongshuang said that the current downstream end users are not very accepting of high-priced resources, and generally adopt the "ready-to-use, on-demand purchase" approach, and the actual transaction price of steel has loosened. Entering April, the fundamentals of the cold and hot rolled coil market will show the following characteristics:

First, the effective demand of downstream terminals has improved. In March, the production and sales of downstream industries such as automobiles and home appliances were in good condition. According to statistics from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in mid-to-early March, 11 key auto companies across the country produced 1.267 million vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 1.2 times. Among them, the output of passenger vehicles reached 1.013 million, a year-on-year increase of 1.3 times; the output of commercial vehicles reached 254,000, a year-on-year increase of double.

At the same time, the home appliance industry has also ushered in the spring, and both production and sales are increasing. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, in the first two months of this year, the output of air conditioners in my country reached 29.404 million units, an increase of 70.8% year-on-year; the output of washing machines reached 13.135 million units, an increase of 68.2% year-on-year; the output of color TVs reached 25.78 million units, an increase of 31.4% year-on-year ; Refrigerator production reached 12.107 million units, a year-on-year increase of 83.0%. Industry insiders predict that my country's home appliance market will continue to rise in 2021. Driven by various favorable factors, the market size is expected to return to the level of 2019. Li Zhongshuang predicts that the demand for cold and hot rolled coils in the automotive and home appliance industries will have strong resilience in the later period, which will support the steady increase in the prices of cold and hot rolled coils.

The second is that the market supply is showing a downward trend. Since the beginning of this year, my country's environmental protection production restrictions have become more and more stringent. As a major steel town in Tangshan, Hebei, production restrictions have continued to increase this year. From the initial production reduction, production restriction, and production suspension, to the current closure and dismantling of some blast furnaces, the implementation has exceeded expectations. Judging from the current production restriction in Tangshan area, it is expected to affect the output of Tangshan pig iron by about 30 million tons. It is not ruled out that other regions may further increase environmental protection and limit production, which will have an impact on crude steel production. Statistics from the China Iron and Steel Association show that in mid-March, the daily average crude steel output of key steel companies declined for two consecutive days. At the same time, steel stocks are also declining. In mid-March, the social inventory of five major steel products in 20 cities across the country reached 17.28 million tons, a decrease of 490,000 tons from the previous month, a decrease of 2.8%; compared with the same period last year, a decrease of 2.72 million tons, a decrease of 13.6%. Li Zhongshuang believes that the supply pressure on the entire market, including cold and hot rolled coils, will be relieved in the later period, which will help the market price of cold and hot rolled coils to stabilize and strengthen.

Third, cost support effectively curbed the price drop. Although the current prices of coal and coke and other raw materials and fuels for iron and steel have fallen, they are still at a high level on the whole, and the pressure on production costs of steel companies is not small. Affected by cost support, steel companies have a strong awareness of price support when formulating steel ex-factory price policies. A few days ago, a group of large steel companies released the ex-factory prices of plate in April, and the ex-factory prices of cold and hot rolled coils have been raised to varying degrees. Li Zhongshuang predicts that the purchase cost of cold and hot rolled coils to be put on the market in the later period will rise, which to a large extent will curb the decline in the market price of refrigeration and hot rolled coils.