On June 10, a downstream power plant inquired for goods and wanted to bid 810 yuan/ton to pull 5,000 kcal of high-quality coal from the northern port, but it was declined by coal traders. On the one hand, if the price is not met, you will lose money when you sell it; on the other hand, there is indeed no high-quality coal at such a low price on the port site.

This week, under the high pressure of the underpricing policy, the power plant imposed restrictions on the bidding price of thermal coal purchases, causing the coal price to rise weakly. However, under high cost suppression and low demand, it is impossible for traders to sell at low prices, and the market is in a stalemate. Based on the fundamentals that the upstream coal supply is still tight and the downstream part just needs to be released, the overall coal market is in a situation of high volatility and low prices. The price index of various industries has been suspended for 10 days. At present, the price of 5,500 kcal thermal coal in the northern port market is 925 yuan/ton, and the price of 5,000 kcal thermal coal is 820-830 yuan/ton. This price lasts for many days.

In terms of ports, the safety supervision situation has become stricter, the supply is difficult to increase significantly, and the market trend is improving; but the policy risks are still there, and it is not easy for coal prices to continue to rise. At present, the trading business of coal water has been upside down, and the delivery volume is reduced; supported by the cost, the quotation is high. In the south, there is frequent rainfall, daily consumption has dropped slightly, the storage is slowly accumulated, and the available days have rebounded slightly; the downstream relies on Changxie coal to increase the purchase of imported coal, and counter-offer prices for market coal are lower. The differences between buyers and sellers are large, and transactions are deadlocked.

The favorable factors that support the improvement of the coal market are as follows:

1. Upstream coal mines are in strict accordance with the approved production capacity and produce normally, and the supply is stable. With the support of the surrounding cement, chemical and platform procurement requirements, the pit coal price has risen steadily. And the recent occurrence of coal mine accidents has increased the intensity of safety inspections.

2. With the emergence of high-temperature weather in the north and south of the Yangtze River, the summer replenishment work is imminent, and the efforts to ensure the supply of electricity and coal continue to increase; the number of ships anchoring coal at northern ports has increased, and the subsequent port market activity has increased.

3. As the weather in the south heats up, the coal storage in power plants accelerates the digestion, and the pressure of replenishment in the "peak summer" is increasing day by day, and some users just need to be further released.

4. After May 1st, all traders brought high-priced coal into Hong Kong. Under the optimistic market situation, they were reluctant to sell at a loss, and the enthusiasm for the price was still there.

5. Although the work of guaranteeing supply has been pushed, the actual effect is not obvious. Environmental protection and safety inspections of production areas have been basically normalized, and coal mines in various places strictly follow the approved production capacity; however, nuclear increase in production capacity and release of new production capacity require a process. Far water does not quench the near thirst.

Negative factors:

1. The policy side continues to release signals to strengthen supervision on the price trends of bulk commodities including coal; the expectation of maintaining market price order and stabilizing bulk commodity prices continues to intensify, which may affect market sentiment and cause prices to fall.

2. The destocking of Bohai Rim ports is not obvious, especially the amount of coal stockpiled in the Tangshan port group; as the hot summer is getting closer and closer, the port Mongolian coal has spontaneous combustion, and some suppliers are more willing to cut prices and deliver goods.

3. The rainy weather has been continuous in the south recently. Although the daily consumption of power plants in the eight coastal provinces is still at a high level, it still dropped to 1.89 million tons. Affected by policies and fear of heights, power plants are not proactive in purchasing, and they only maintain rigid pull, and inventory has been at a low-to-medium level.

market prediction:

In mid-to-late this month, Daqing is approaching the century. Without more direct and effective measures to increase production, it is expected that the market supply and demand tensions will be difficult to reverse. In particular, two accidents not long ago triggered stricter safety inspections, prompting market coal prices to remain unchanged. Maintain a high and volatile trend.