The summer is hot, but the steel market has somewhat "cool".

After entering June, the steel market began to show signs of turbulence and weakening. Affected by this, the plate market price also slowly opened the negative decline mode. Take the Tianjin market as an example. As of June 10, the plate in the Tianjin market was generally down. Among them, Tiangang Puzhong board 16mm ~ 20mm Q235B price is 3750 yuan / ton, Tiangang low alloy plate 16mm ~ 20mm Q345B price is 3960 yuan / ton, compared with the beginning of June, the price fell 40 yuan / Ton ~ 80 yuan / ton.

As far as the current market is concerned, due to seasonal factors, the supply and demand of the plate market will usher in a new turning point. As demand continues to decrease, the late plate market is likely to show a weak shock adjustment. The main reasons are:

First, demand has entered the off-season mode, and there is little room for price increases. As the traditional low demand for the steel market in June, the downstream demand for the sheet market is gradually decreasing or a foregone conclusion. According to the author's research, most of the downstream merchants in the plate market are purchasing on demand, and they are more cautious in purchasing orders. Affected by this, the trading in the plate market has gradually decreased, and the market has gradually entered a state of pricelessness. Once this situation continues to “fermentate”, it is not ruled out that due to the lack of effective support, the price of the plate market may be greatly dived.

Second, the bearish sentiment is getting stronger and the market pessimism is reappearing. As market transactions are cold, traders’ sentiment is growing. In particular, the recent performance of the futures market is not satisfactory, which further fuels the pessimism of the market. With the accumulation of bearish sentiment, it is not ruled out that steel mills may actively call back prices to stimulate trading, which indirectly weakens the resilience of sheet prices.

Third, the release of production capacity is too fast, and the contradiction between supply and demand in the market is prominent. At the same time of the decrease in demand, the current production capacity release in the domestic market has not “stepped on the brakes”, which has intensified the contradiction between supply and demand in the market to some extent. It is expected that the price of the plate market will not rebound sharply in the short term.

Based on the above analysis, it is expected that the late plate market will be difficult to rebound sharply. However, considering that the plate market price is different from the construction steel price and has stability, it is expected that the market price will fall sharply. The reason is: on the one hand, the current iron ore price is still in the rising channel, the plate market price still has cost support, to some extent, blocking the downside of the plate price; on the other hand, the current domestic mainstream plate production enterprises are not large The factory price will be lowered, and the price adjustment will be more stable. This will help the repair of market sentiment to a certain extent and help the smooth running of the plate market price.

In short, with the continuous “fermentation” of the off-season effect, the later plate market will seek new breakthroughs in the process of weak shock adjustment. It is recommended that traders fast forward and fall in the operation.