The overall adjustment of the iron ore market in December 2018
Dec. 13, 2018
During the week (December 3 to December 7), the iron ore market was slightly adjusted as a whole. Among them, the price of imported iron ore rose slightly, and the price of domestic iron ore stabilized. At the beginning of the week, the spot market also showed a tendency to stop falling as the steel market rebounded steadily and the price of imported iron ore futures rose. Near the weekend, due to the shortage of high-grade resources available for trading in the port, traders are highly motivated to ship.
Steel mills have a general mindset of purchasing, and they are more likely to follow the market, and they are mainly based on on-demand replenishment, and the acceptance of traders is not high. The wide fluctuations in steel prices have led steel mills to compress the cost of the charge and the procurement target has shifted from high grade to medium and low grade. The domestic iron ore market is weak, the pace of steel mills is slowing down, the inquiry is not active, the market is poorly motivated, and the mine fines inventory has accumulated. Most of the mining companies offer firmer prices and stable market prices. Some steel mills are in different stages of production shutdown and maintenance. The demand for iron ore has decreased, the number of goods-seeking merchants has decreased, and the prices of large-scale mineral processing enterprises have stabilized. Therefore, the prices in the mainstream market are not volatile. The main factors affecting the market: First, after the continuous decline in the price of imported iron ore, the purchasing sentiment of the steel mills has improved, the price of imported iron ore has remained firm, the turnover has improved, and the amount of overseas mine resources is still low. Due to the low iron ore inventory, steel mills still have some demand for replenishment.
Due to the high cost of some mineral processing companies and traders, the willingness to ship at low prices is not strong. Second, the steel mills have little incentive to purchase iron ore. Recently, the profit of the steel market has been greatly narrowed, and the demand in the downstream market is not strong. It is difficult for steel mills to purchase in large quantities. At present, the demand situation of the steel market is difficult to pick up, which means that there is no obvious trend of good operation. Therefore, it is unlikely that the iron ore market will increase in strength. Main factors affecting the market outlook:
The steel market is running oscillating. On the one hand, although the current steel profit has declined somewhat, there is still a large profit compared with previous years. In the case of the elimination of “one size fits all” and the profitability of the steel market, it is unlikely that the steel mills will actively reduce production. On the other hand, as steel prices fluctuate and rebound, the profitability of some steel companies has improved. Affected by this, the steel mill procurement will gradually recover, coupled with the low inventory of steel mills, will enhance its willingness to replenish iron ore, will play a certain supporting role for the price of iron ore.
High-grade iron ore supply is tight. First, the recent low iron ore resources to Hong Kong, coupled with the slow progress of steel mills, the continuous decline in iron ore stocks in the port; second, due to heavy pollution, the blast furnace production policy in some areas may be severely tightened, steel The demand for iron ore will also decrease seasonally. Third, with the recovery of Australian mine shipments, the proportion of high-grade Australian iron ore in imported iron ore port stocks has increased, and the supply pressure of high-grade iron ore in the later period has increased. Or will gradually appear.
In summary, the overseas mine shipments have recovered, and the arrival volume has rebounded after three consecutive weeks of decline. At the same time, the traditional peak season for mine shipments in December will gradually increase the supply pressure. Due to the sharp contraction in steel market profits, most steel mills continue to maintain low-inventory operations, and the main varieties are mainly mainstream Australian ore and medium-low grade iron ore. At present, the utilization rate of blast furnace capacity, the output of molten iron, the volume of port and the daily consumption continue to decline, indicating that the decline in demand for iron ore is more obvious. Therefore, it is expected that the domestic iron ore market will be weakly oscillated in the later period.