Currently in mid-June, from the statistical law, the rebar futures contract began a wave of trending after the end of June 26, 2018, and the bottom of June 6th, June 6th, June On the 24th, it began to rise sharply; in 2016, it was at the end of June, and although there was a correction in mid-June, it was followed by a trend-up.

In the past three years, there has been a bottoming in June or early, and a wave of trending ups has started, and September and October are the legendary peak seasons. Many market participants believe that in the long run. Under the traditional peak season, it is a good trading strategy to actively do more 1910 contracts.

But the author believes that it is also necessary to recognize the difference between 2019 and 2016-2018. In the first year of the supply-side reform of the steel industry in 2016, the absolute value of rebar prices was low. In June 2017, the spot price of rebar futures was very large, giving a good margin of safety. In 2018, if Shanghai's thread price is subtracted from the futures price as the reference indicator of the basis, the basis of June 2018 is around 300, and currently it is around 200, and the demand for rebar in 2018 should be the most recent. The highest in the year, so although the basis of 2018 is much lower than that of 2017, the increase in 2018 is better under the expectation that strong demand and environmental protection will affect the supply side.

Going back to the present, the sentiment in the market in 2019 is more optimistic, and the basis is not large. If you are optimistic about the market outlook, it means optimism about demand, and even think that demand in 2018 will reappear. But if the demand is not so good, it means that it is more dangerous to do more, and in the case of anticipation of optimism, the demand is not only good, but also to a certain extent to have better value.

So what will be the next demand in 2019?

From the perspective of seasonality, which has received a lot of market attention, we have witnessed too many anti-seasonal and seasonally unclear situations in recent years. From 2016 to 2018, it is generally uncomfortable in the off-season. In particular, in November 2017, the increase of 1801 contracts showed an increase of around 850; from December 2018 until the Spring Festival, the off-season demand In anticipation, in the general case of the treasury, the previous pessimistic sentiment was corrected, driving the futures gain of around 600.

For the history of the market in the past few years, we can interpret it from several angles. It can be explained that the demand is really good. We should maintain a positive and optimistic attitude. However, the author thinks that this angle is too one-sided and should be interpreted more as a season. Sex is just a law, not a law. We should not hold the seasonal statistical laws and ignore the logic behind seasonal rules. Then the off-season in the past few years can not be light, does it mean that the peak season can not be prosperous? Under the emphasis here, it is not that the peak season will not be prosperous, but when the seasonal law is no longer so stable, we also need to consider the possibility of anti-seasonal occurrence, or the possibility of seasonality.

In order to consider the situation of the seasonality next year, it is necessary to judge the supply and demand side. Since the core of thread demand is in real estate, the situation in the real estate industry plays a pivotal role in the demand for threads. In the real estate industry, before August 2018, the sales area of commercial housing was better than the same period in 2017, and it was weaker than the same period in 2018 in September 2018. The price index of urban second-hand housing sales began to fall in the third quarter of 2018. In 2019, it was slightly rebounded under the stimulus of short-term policies. However, if the construction of the price index is considered to be a package of cities, the price should first weaken. It has already appeared in the second quarter of 2018. Even though the average price of sample houses in Baicheng is still rising, the rise is becoming weaker. In 2016, the sales of real estate began to rise. The sales of real estate in 2016-2018 remained very high. Combined with factors such as population cycle and housing supply, it was judged that there was a serious overdraft demand status, while real estate supply and demand was short-term. There is a gap, this situation can be maintained for a certain period of time, and will not drive the pressure of house prices, but with the increase in new construction area in 2017, the increase in supply, the pressure of demand overdraft gradually emerged, for real estate sales The pressure is relatively large.

Based on the logic and data analysis of various aspects, the sales pressure of real estate will gradually be reflected in the second half of this year, which will also drive the enthusiasm of real estate enterprises for investment. For the demand of rebar, the next June-August demand It will be a low season feature, while the traditional gold, nine silver and ten, then the probability of demand is relatively general, or even relatively poor, then the corresponding 1910 contract may appear unilateral falling market, price support will be cost support, and corresponding The demand for poor rebar demand, driven by the decline in raw material prices, will be a very large trend of falling prices. The current judgment is based on current logic and data. If new information appears in the market, such as policy adjustments, there may be a possibility to change opinions.