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Accelerate the implementation of increased coal production and supply in many places

Oct. 12, 2021

Inner Mongolia, Liaoning and many other places have recently made every effort to increase coal production and stabilize prices to ensure increased coal production and supply.


Regarding the nuclear increase of coal mine production capacity, the Inner Mongolia Energy Administration issued an emergency notice on October 7, expressly allowing 72 coal mines in the four cities of Xilin Gol, Wuhai, Ordos, and Hulunbuir to increase coal production capacity with immediate effect on the premise of ensuring safety. Organize production according to the nuclear increase in production capacity. The industry expects that this part of coal mines will immediately begin to contribute to the increase in coal production, which will ease the current tight coal supply situation. Institutions believe that the pace of short-term capacity deployment may be lower than expected, and the industry's tight supply pattern will not be reversed during the year. It is expected that the performance of listed companies will gradually improve during the year, which may exceed expectations.

Accelerate the implementation of increased coal production and supply in many places

It is expected that the performance of listed companies will gradually improve during the year

Looking into the medium and long term, some institutions are still optimistic about the coal sector.


Guotai Junan believes that the current market's concern lies in the gradual release of future supply, and coal prices may fall sharply. However, the core contradiction still lies in the supply. The short-term supply-guaranteed production pace continues to be lower than expected. In the future, considering the limited new capacity, coal supply may be in a tight state before carbon peaks, and coal prices may remain high for a long time.


CITIC Securities believes that the intensive implementation of policies in the past two weeks has brought disturbance to market expectations. However, it will take time for the policy to be fully effective, and the industry's tight supply pattern will hardly be reversed during the year. It is expected that the performance of listed companies will gradually improve during the year, which may exceed expectations. In the context of the surge in overseas energy prices, continue to be optimistic about the sector market, and recommend companies that have gradually enlarged performance flexibility and have potential catalysts for their stock prices.


Zhongtai Securities pointed out in the latest research report that the main producing areas of Shanxi and Inner Mongolia recently held the fourth quarter coal mid- and long-term contract signing meeting respectively, and the guaranteed coal supply volume is expected to be 55 million tons and 53 million tons respectively. It is expected that coal will be a scarce resource in the next few years, the stock capacity is high profits, and the assets need to be revalued. The stock price has not fully responded to this.


Chuancai Securities believes that according to current data, the quarter-on-quarter increase in coal prices in the third and fourth quarters is a high probability event. The acceleration of industry profit growth means that there is a possibility of upward adjustments in the sector's performance expectations. It continues to be optimistic about the coal sector during the year.


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