Although the terminal demand for rebar in September was not as good as expected and failed to achieve the "Golden Nine" grand occasion, after the National Day, terminal demand quickly released. According to statistics from relevant agencies, the average daily transaction volume of 237 distributors across the country hit a high of more than 250,000 tons, and even reached a high transaction level of 300,000 tons. In recent days, although the daily transaction volume dropped slightly to about 210,000 tons, on the 5th The average transaction value remains at a high level of 230,000 tons. The "Silver Ten" demand provided sufficient impetus for the price increase of rebar.

After the National Day, rebar stocks continued to fall, from 12 million tons in the first week after the National Day to 7.93 million tons last week (November 9-13), a drop of nearly 40%, and a decrease from the weekly rate From a point of view, the rate of decline in the five weeks after the National Day holiday was 7%, 5%, 7%, 9%, and 11%, respectively, and the rate of decline increased significantly. Therefore, on the whole, although the current absolute inventory is 2.4 million tons higher than the same period last year, an increase of nearly 42% year-on-year, the current destocking speed is considerable. If the destocking speed can be maintained, it is not ruled out that the year-on-year increase will decrease significantly in the next few weeks.

From the perspective of apparent demand for rebar, last week’s apparent demand increased by 180,000 tons from the previous month to 4.65 million tons, which is once again close to the super-high apparent demand level at the end of May this year. It has maintained a high level of over 4.4 million tons for three consecutive weeks. Shows a tendency to go further. Such a high apparent demand indicates that the rebar supply and demand relationship has improved significantly in the near future, and there is strong support for the rebar spot price and recent monthly contracts.

Based on the above analysis, the author believes that the current situation of high supply and high inventory of rebar has been significantly alleviated, and short-term demand is expected to continue to remain high due to further release of demand in East China and rush work in Xiong'an of North China, which will drive the supply and demand relationship of rebar. Further improvement. While the spot market price is firm, it will also reduce the pressure on rebar futures to sell and deliver, which is conducive to the increase in the price of rebar contracts in recent months, which in turn promotes the spread of rebar futures 2101 and 2105 contracts to continue to run at a high level. However, it should be noted that the only factor that is currently unfavorable to the strong price of rebar contracts in recent months is that traders who have a higher absolute price are not willing to store winter storage. As the weather further turns colder, terminal demand will shift to trade When the demand for commercial winter storage changes, the price of rebar may be under pressure.