In 2020, due to the effective prevention and control of the new crown pneumonia epidemic, my country quickly resumed work and production, becoming the only country in the world's major economies to achieve positive economic growth. This year's government work report set a goal of GDP growth of more than 6%, which aroused heated discussions among market participants. On March 5, a reporter from "China Metallurgical News" interviewed Jiao Genpeng, general manager of HBIS Xuangang Longxiang Development Company. According to him, since the end of the Spring Festival holiday this year, steel prices have continued to rise due to good expectations and cost pushes, especially rebar futures prices have risen strongly. Although the current steel price rise has slowed down, it has not affected the market's bullish enthusiasm. In terms of raw materials and fuels, the coke market has weakened, and the iron ore, steel billet, and scrap markets remain strong. Taking into account the impact of cost factors, Jiao Genpeng expects that steel prices will remain high and fluctuate in the short term, and the probability of a sharp drop is small.

Jiao Genpeng said that after the National Two Sessions, the steel market will usher in the peak sales season in March and April, and the increase in inventory is expected to slow down. After short-term small fluctuations, steel prices will continue to be strong. Specifically:

First, infrastructure construction will still be an important starting point for the realization of a dual economic cycle in 2021, and some key national projects will be launched one after another. The state will continue to support major projects that promote coordinated regional development, promote the construction of major projects such as new infrastructure, new urbanization, transportation and water conservancy, and allow more government investment to favor projects that benefit a wide range of people's livelihoods.

Second, the proactive fiscal policy in 2021 should improve quality and efficiency, be more sustainable, and support the strong demand for steel. It is good news for infrastructure investment and the promotion of the construction of affordable rental housing.

Third, in line with the strategic basis of insisting on expanding domestic demand, fully tap the potential of the domestic market, stabilize and expand consumption, and increase residents' income through multiple channels. This is expected to stimulate consumption in downstream industries such as home appliances and automobiles, which is good for sheet metal.

Fourth is on the international front. As vaccines are vaccinated globally one after another in 2021, the world economy is expected to accelerate recovery, and various countries have successively introduced economic relief plans. The continued improvement in the international economic situation will drive an increase in domestic export orders, which in turn will lead to an increase in indirect steel exports.

Fifth, my country will continue to increase its efforts in ecological environment management, and do a solid job in carbon peaking and carbon neutrality. In this context, environmental protection and production restrictions will become normal, and it is imperative to reduce crude steel output. This will have a certain impact on the supply of market resources.

Based on this, Jiao Genpeng predicts that steel production will probably fall back this year, and the demand for steel will increase substantially, driven by the expected improvement in economic growth this year. In the "one drop and one increase", the contradiction between supply and demand in the steel market will be further eased, which is conducive to the smooth operation of steel prices