This year, my country's raw coal output has increased. From January to May, my country's coal output has accumulated to 1.621 billion tons, an increase of 8.8% year-on-year. There is a lot of increase, but the demand is better; in addition, Australian coal is restricted, imported coal is reduced, high-calorie coal is in short supply, and the domestic market is obviously tightening. Entering June, the market is cautiously optimistic, and coal prices in production areas and ports continue to rise; coal prices are expected to maintain a mid-to-high volatility trend in the second half of the month.

First, in the near future, there have been frequent safety accidents in mining areas, and the July National Day celebration is approaching, safety and over-production inspections have been intensified, and mines have strictly produced production according to their approved production capacity. In Inner Mongolia, the coal ticket is still issued according to the approved capacity, and the coal ticket at the end of the month is still tight, and the increase in coal production is limited. It is more difficult for the state to ensure the supply, and the coal production is more difficult to increase.

Second, due to my country's suspension of unloading Australian coal, coal imports have dropped significantly year-on-year. From January to May, my country imported 111 million tons of coal, a decrease of 25.2% from the same period last year and a decrease of 12.7% from the same period of the previous year. Although Zhejiang, Jiangsu, and Fujian have fully liberalized imported coal except for Australian coal, due to factors such as shipping schedules and tight import resources, coal resources outside Hong Kong are limited before the end of this month, and the price difference between imported coal and domestic coal has gradually narrowed , The price advantage of imported coal has weakened, and it is difficult to alleviate the tight supply situation in the domestic market by increasing imports.

Third, from January to May this year, a number of economic indicators in my country still maintained rapid growth; among them, the added value of the national industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 17.8% year-on-year. Due to the further recovery of the macro economy and strong demand for electricity, thermal power output increased significantly year-on-year. From January to May this year, China's power generation was 3,177.2 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 14.9% and an increase of 11.3% over the same period in 2019. This year, the cement and coal chemical industries have a relatively high operating rate, the downstream demand is strong, and the demand for coal is relatively strong. The cement and coal chemical industries can adjust the prices of downstream products to ensure their own profit level when coal costs increase. Therefore, compared with power plants, they have a better acceptance of high-priced coal and form a strong support for coal prices.

Fourth, as the temperature gradually rises, the demand for terminal electricity increases, and the daily consumption of power plants remains high. The daily consumption of power plants in eight coastal provinces has risen to 2.02 million tons. Mid-May to mid-June of the previous year was a good time for power plant replenishment, but this year the power plant has been waiting for the national policy, only to carry out a passive replenishment; currently, the power plant’s coal inventory is at a low-to-medium level, and replenishment is intermittent. , Demand still exists, supporting coal prices. Although many areas in the south have adopted measures such as peak-shifting power consumption to control the daily consumption of power plants, and the gradual use of hydropower has also restrained the increase in daily consumption of power plants to a certain extent; however, as the temperature continues to rise in the future, the replacement effect of hydropower is limited. , The daily consumption level of power plants still has room for improvement.