Logical analysis of supply and demand of nickel resources in China during the post-epidemic period
Jun. 18, 2020
Since nickel consumption in stainless steel accounts for 61% of the overall nickel metal consumption and metal alloy consumption accounts for 22%, coupled with the rapid growth of China's stainless steel industry and the development of ternary battery materials, nickel metal market prices have fluctuated from 2016 to Early 2020. Especially after the Indonesian mine ban in 2019, the expected mismatch between supply and demand has stimulated nickel prices to exhibit a "demon nickel" market. The price peak once exceeded 18,000 US dollars/ton. Later, due to the spread of the new coronary pneumonia epidemic in the world, with the general price of commodities falling, the price of nickel fell below the 50th percentile of nickel sulfide production cost to 10,915 US dollars / ton (through statistics of major nickel sulfide production companies in the world According to the price-cost percentile analysis, the 40, 60, and 80 quintiles of nickel sulfide mines in the world are respectively 9,100 USD/ton, 11,100 USD/ton, and 12,600 USD/ton).
It is estimated that from 2020 to 2025, nickel prices will continue to be strong under the stimulation of Chinese stainless steel and ternary battery materials. The overall momentum is good, but the price peak will not exceed the previous high of 18,000 US dollars / ton. Affected by the global spread of the new coronary pneumonia epidemic, nickel prices are expected to reach a basic balance globally in 2020. The average annual nickel price may be around the 80th percentile of nickel production in the world, which is $12,600/ton. It is estimated that the average annual nickel prices from 2021 to 2025 will be US$14,000/ton, US$14,300/ton, US$13,900/ton, US$13,800/ton, and US$13,500/ton.