Recently, affected by the expectation of tight spot supply, the 2101 coking coal futures contract appeared to be higher than the spot price. Last Monday, it rose to 1,644 yuan/ton, only 32 yuan/ton from the 2016 historical high.

In response, Wang Zhe, a researcher in the black department of Guangzhou Futures, told the reporter of the Futures Daily that the high spot price of the coking coal futures 2101 contract in the early stage was mainly driven by the escalation of national coal mine safety inspections triggered by the Chongqing mining disaster. The market's concerns about the shortage of coking coal supply triggered coking coal. Futures prices rose sharply.

It is understood that Mongolia once again broke out of the new crown epidemic in November, and the border between China and Mongolia resumed strict epidemic prevention measures, and the efficiency of the opening of Mongolia's coal to traffic has dropped significantly. In December, the average daily traffic volume was less than 100 vehicles, and the number of imported Mongolian coal fell sharply. In addition, the Australian coal customs clearance has not been opened, and ships cannot unload the port. "In the case of a decline in the replenishment of imported coal, domestic coal mine safety upgrades have further amplified the reduction in the supply of coking coal, triggering expectations of market concerns about the supply of coking coal, resulting in the phenomenon that the 2101 contract leads the spot market." said Wang Xintong, a researcher at China Everbright Futures Co .

A person from a coking coal trading company in East China told reporters that the Mongolian epidemic is currently under control and the import customs clearance of Mongolian low-sulfur coal is gradually resuming. It is planned to return to customs clearance of 500 to 1,000 vehicles this week.

As of December 10, the number of Mongolian coal customs clearance vehicles was 171. Since December, the average daily traffic volume has been 106.9 vehicles, which is a significant increase from the previous month, but there is still a big gap compared with the monthly average of 538 vehicles in November. A total of 1,500 Mongolian drivers performed nucleic acid tests in Ganqimaodu, all of which were negative.

"At present, drivers who have passed the nucleic acid test can complete customs clearance, and the Mandula port has also resumed traffic. It is expected that the amount of coal traffic in Mongolia will gradually increase. However, it is still necessary to pay attention to the efficiency of customs clearance caused by epidemic prevention and control." Wang Zhe said.

In addition, the reporter learned that Shanxi's coking coal is more cost-effective and suitable for delivery. The main coal types are Luliang and Jinzhong's medium-sulfur main coking coal. The mainstream medium-sulfur main coking coal (1.3S10.5A80G60CSR) traders offer about 1,070 yuan/ton. The cost of the main coking coal in the benchmark area for delivery from Shanxi to Dashang is more than 1,400 yuan per ton.

After Shanxi launched a special campaign to combat coal mine over-production and super-stratum cross-border mining in early October, the operating rate of sample coal mines declined, but the capacity release rate was still close to 110%, and the absolute value of coking coal output did not decrease unexpectedly. "The coking plants in Hebei and other places actively purchased coke due to higher profits in the early stage. At present, the raw material inventory data of the coking plants is at a high level year-on-year." Wang Zhe said.

During the National Day holiday, steel mills were concerned about the increase in costs caused by rising coking coal prices in the future, and their replenishment efforts continued to increase. Coking coal stocks shifted from top to bottom and the upstream coal stocks continued to decline. Statistics show that after more than two months of continuous replenishment of 230 coking plants, the standing inventory of coking coal has been 17% higher than the same period last year, and the available days have reached 20 days. This year, the coking capacity has continued to shrink, the supply and demand of coking coal have been relatively balanced, and the replenishment of coking plants has gradually slowed down. "Although there is still replenishment in the later period, the replenishment is not strong, and the replenishment is mainly based on needs." Wang Xintong said.

The above-mentioned interviewees believe that, at present, coking coal inventories of coking companies are at a high level, terminal demand is slowing down, and the 2101 contract for coking coal is expected to see a basis repair market. As the coking coal adopts the rolling delivery method, individual investors and accounts without delivery capabilities should pay attention to delivery risks.