During the Spring Festival this year, the average holiday time for coal mines was reduced by half compared with the same period last year, and the supply was relatively loose. Affected by the downturn in downstream demand, coal mine inventories have remained high, and some mines have appeared top positions; recently, prices of some mines have dropped by 10-50 yuan. The port price is also not optimistic. From the highest level of 1150 yuan/ton, it was cut to 620 yuan/ton, and there is still room for a decline of about 50-70 yuan/ton.

On the 19th, the Shandong enterprise-owned power plant issued another notice to lower the coal price. This is the eighth time the power plant received a price cut in February; in less than a month, Weiqiao has reduced nearly 300 yuan/ton. . As the weather picks up, it is difficult for downstream demand levels to return to the cold winter season. Under the condition of sufficient supply, it is not surprising that power plants lowered their purchase prices. Some power plants have stopped bidding, actively consuming their high-level inventory, and remain rigid on Changxie Coal Pull luck. The current market coal price is accelerating its return to rationality, but considering that downstream industrial enterprises have not fully resumed production, there is still room for price reductions in a short period of time.

Under the influence of three factors, such as the decline in the port market and the epidemic situation, as well as the adequate stocking of the surrounding chemical and building materials industries, the coal price at the production area quickly collapsed; the production area has been reduced from coal grabbing in early January to no one in late January until now. Under the influence of "buying up and not buying down", the possibility of large-scale downstream procurement is very low in the short term. In less than a month, the coal price at the producing area had the biggest drop of nearly 200 yuan; among them, the 5,500 kcal coal of Datong fell from 710 yuan/ton on January 19 to the current 540 yuan/ton, a straight drop of 170 yuan.

As coal mines gradually resume production, the supply of coal has increased. Vehicles in low-risk areas in Hebei have been lifted, and a large number of coal trucks have resumed. However, it is currently in the off-season for coal use. In addition to rigid demand, traders are afraid to let go of purchases. Most of them are waiting and waiting for the bottom of the valley.

This year, the state advocates celebrating the New Year on the spot, and the resumption of factories is earlier than in previous years, and the time for the increase in downstream demand is earlier. The power consumption since the fifth day is evident. However, coal companies worry that it will be difficult for workers to return after the Spring Festival, which will affect the process of coal mine resumption, and they also advocate for employees to celebrate the New Year locally. As coal prices in ports have not stabilized, and transportation in production areas is still sluggish, it is expected that coal prices in production areas will continue to fall in the short term. But at the same time, it should be noted that although the power plant inventory in the eight coastal provinces has been accumulated, the increase is limited compared to before the holiday. Affected by the closure of shipping and reduced shipments, the Bohai Rim port inventory increased by 3 million tons, but the coal inventory at Qinhuangdao Port, known as the "coal price vane", has increased by only 300,000 tons, which continues to be at a low level.

It is expected that coal prices from producing areas will stabilize and stop falling until the end of this month, early March at the latest; while port coal prices are expected to stabilize in early March, coal trading prices in the northern port market are likely to fall near the monthly or even annual long-term agreement prices. fall.