Nowadays, the fourth round of price increase of coke market in some areas is a foregone conclusion. So, can the price increase in the coke market continue? In this regard, the industry believes that the price of the coke market may rise steadily in the short term, but the following factors need to be paid attention to:

First, the tight supply and high prices of coking coal will not change in the short term. According to industry analysts, the shortage of domestic coking coal supply still exists in the second half of the year. Due to repeated epidemics in some areas, combined with production safety and environmental restrictions, the output of coking coal is difficult to increase. In the second half of the year, the output of domestic coking coal may drop by 2.2 million tons. At the same time, the import volume of coking coal will be reduced by about 5 million tons in the second half of the year. On August 6, the total inventory of sample coking coal monitored by the industry was 2017 million tons, a decrease of 1.66 million tons from the beginning of July. The current inventory has been lower than the level of the same period in recent years, and the tight supply of coking coal is difficult to change in the short term. To a large extent, this determines that the price of coking coal is easy to rise but not to fall, and the coke production cost of coking enterprises remains high. Rigid cost support has prompted coking companies to increase their willingness to stand up for prices. Therefore, the price of coke in the later market may hardly fall, or will increase steadily.

Second, in the second half of the year, steel companies intensified their efforts to limit and reduce production, and the intensity of coke demand weakened. In the second half of the year, iron and steel enterprises in various regions are actively controlling production capacity and reducing production. At present, the steel industry's work to reduce crude steel output is proceeding in an orderly manner. For example, Tangshan issued the "Implementation Plan for Air Quality Assurance for the 2022 Beijing Winter Olympics and Winter Paralympics (Opinion Draft)", requiring that the city's crude steel output in 2021 be reduced by 12.37 million tons year-on-year. According to statistics from the China Iron and Steel Association, the average daily crude steel output of key steel companies in the first ten days of August was 2.0439 million tons, a decrease of 2.97% month-on-month and 4.4% year-on-year. Industry insiders predict that in August, the daily output of crude steel in the country may drop to about 2.7 million tons. The decline in steel production will inevitably lead to a decline in coke consumption in steel mills. Therefore, steel mills will increase their willingness to keep prices down, which will, to a certain extent, curb the continued upward trend of coke market prices in the later period.

Third, due to environmental restrictions on production of coking companies, it is more difficult to increase output, and the supply of coke and steel has both weakened. Similar to iron and steel companies, coking companies also face the problems of environmental protection and production reductions. In mid-July, the 100-day tackling plan of Linfen City required four coking companies to limit their production by 15% to 35% during the control period. Coking companies have begun to implement them, with a total production capacity of 4.8 million tons. In fact, coke production in June has shown a downward trend. In June, the coke output was 38.91 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3.2%. Among them, the coke output of iron and steel coking enterprises was 9.22 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.6%; the coke output of other coking enterprises was 29.69 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 5.9%. Therefore, the coke market supply is difficult to increase.

Stabilizing the market and prices, coke enterprises must take the road of high-quality development

The industry believes that in order to maintain the smooth operation of the coke market and ensure that the price of coke is stable in a reasonable and normal range, the coking industry must take the road of high-quality and intensive development. At present, the concentration of my country's coking companies is still low. The total coke production capacity of the coking industry is 610 million tons, and these production capacities are distributed among about 500 companies. At the same time, the coking industry’s capacity of 4.3 meters and below coke ovens exceeds 40%, and the ability to maintain market stability and controllability is not strong. Under the circumstance of declining total market demand, it is easy to fall into the homogenization and non-compliance of “price wars”. Order the state of competition. Therefore, it is imperative to increase the concentration of the coking industry and take the road of high-quality development. Many coking companies have begun to exert their efforts:

Some coking companies actively promote the integration of industry assets and product structure adjustments, through mergers and reorganizations, increase industrial concentration, and strengthen intensified development; some coking companies rely on innovation to create new engines for development, open up new space for development, and cultivate new economic growth To achieve sustainable development; some coking companies focus on improving product quality and competitiveness, focusing on their core business, self-adjustment, innovation and upgrading in product structure, industrial structure, technical structure, and talent structure, focusing on promoting industrial and The goal of products leap to the mid-to-high end of the value chain is to carry out scientific research, optimize and extend the deep processing industrial chain of coke oven gas, coal tar, and crude benzene, to achieve the goal of product diversification and qualitative development, and to enhance product value.

More coking enterprises, based on the optimization, improvement and upgrading of the entire process system of existing production process facilities, make up for the shortcomings of system production elements, reduce system operating costs, and increase profitability. At the same time, they are constantly developing new ways and methods to reduce the cost of coke production; in-depth research on low-cost coal blending technology, establishing a scientific coal blending technology system that combines coal rock technology with traditional coal blending; developing weak cohesive coal upgrading, Lignite non-binder briquette coal blending and coking, and the application of high-reactivity high-calcium coke in blast furnaces; carrying out technical research on reducing the burning rate of dry quenching coke ovens, extending the service life of equipment and materials; developing coke manufacturing process information To promote the application of automation and informatization management and control technology in the production organization and operation management of the coking industry; further use "Internet +" and modern e-commerce means to fully optimize the allocation of information flow, material flow, and capital in the coking industry Flow, forming a new business format with standardized transactions, fairness and justice, and efficient operation.

Enterprises in the coking industry are striving for high-quality and intensive development. It is necessary to maintain the stability of the coke market price, strengthen the dynamic forecast and analysis of the market, pay attention to the study of changes in the coking coal and coking market, and improve the quality of products and services that meet the individual and customized needs of users Level; gradually improve and improve the scientific pricing mechanism of enterprises and the information communication and coordination mechanism between enterprises and users in the industry; strengthen industry self-discipline to avoid disorderly and vicious competition in the industry; study potential market demand to develop high-end carbon fiber Advanced carbon materials and other cutting-edge new materials represented as breakthroughs, seize the commanding heights of materials; effectively improve the quality of operations, promote the settlement of the "two golds" (receivables and inventories), optimize the asset-liability structure through multiple channels, and improve risk prevention Control ability; focus on improving the level of refined management and improving the ability to reduce costs and increase efficiency. At the same time, coking enterprises must adhere to the orientation of creating value for users, and realize the transformation from large-scale development to high-quality development, and from self-development to mutual benefit and win-win development.