What do you think of the coal market in August?
Aug. 04, 2021
In July, with the rapid growth of local power load, the demand for coal and power for people's livelihood increased, and the guarantee of supply, increase and transportation passed smoothly. In August, mining, road, port, shipping, electricity trade and other parties jointly guaranteed supply, increased transportation and stable price, which is the top priority, while large coal enterprises and traders have a great responsibility in the next supply guarantee test; In the second half of the peak summer, ensuring supply and increasing transportation and stabilizing the market have become the key points for the smooth passage of the coal consumption peak.
In July, affected by the high temperature climate, the daily consumption of power plants continued to rise. The daily consumption of power plants in eight coastal provinces once rose to 2.23 million tons, and the daily consumption of six coastal power plants rose to 860000 tons. The demand for coal is optimistic and the market is tightening. Subsequently, affected by typhoon and continuous rainfall, the downstream demand weakened, but the rigid replenishment of storage is still in progress, the coal market is tight and orderly, and the coal price is stabilizing. In August, from the supply side, the north gradually bid farewell to the rainy climate in the early stage, coal production and railway outward transportation are in the recovery stage, and the transportation tension in the early stage will be alleviated. In terms of demand, the temperature in East China decreased significantly and the civil power load decreased slightly; However, due to the low inventory of the power plant, the procurement demand is still strong. In the coal market in August, the demand for power coal remained strong in the first and middle of the year; However, in the latter ten days, with the departure of the hot weather, the demand for coal gradually weakened; With the continuous promotion of policy supply guarantee and the increase of railway shipment, the market has gradually shifted to the balance of supply and demand.
At present, the demand of the second port and the power plant is not weak, except that a certain number of anchor ships are anchored in the port around the Bohai Sea and high-quality coal continues to wait for goods. Despite the continuous introduction of measures to ensure supply and price stability, high-quality resources are still in short supply under the superposition of factors such as railway shipment not reaching a high level, positive replenishment of power plants and strong demand. In terms of imported coal, Indonesia's coal price is at a high level, and the transportation is affected by the epidemic, resulting in a low transfer in volume. This month, the domestic market supply will increase. 38 open-pit coal mines in Ordos have entered topsoil stripping operation, involving a production capacity of 66.7 million tons, which will soon form an actual output. In addition, with the improvement of the safety situation, the coal mines that have stopped production due to the flooding accident in Yulin area will resume production one after another. From the weather forecast, the temperature in Zhejiang, Shanghai and other places in East China decreased significantly, and rainfall was frequent; In August, the new long-term cooperation agreement was issued, coupled with the release of new production capacity, the number of coal transported by power plants in the market decreased, and the market coal price will fall.
In August, the market will turn loose, and coal prices will stabilize first and then fall. First of all, during the "peak summer" period, the coal storage requirements of the power plant were reduced from 15 days to 7 days, and there was little pressure on the downstream replenishment, which reduced the terminal procurement demand to a certain extent. Secondly, the pressure of "dual control of energy" is great. Cement, smelting and other industries carry out staggered peak production, and some high energy consuming industries will be restrained, reducing the demand for coal consumption. Again, approaching the beginning of autumn, the weather is cool in the morning and evening; With the superposition of hydropower power in Southwest China, the purchased power in coastal areas increases and the pressure of thermal power decreases. The most important thing is that a number of early regulatory policies have entered the landing period, the new investment capacity in Ordos is accelerating the release, and the coal market tends to be rational.