Tenaris analysis believes that due to tight cash flow and unfavorable financial environment, the shale resource exploitation in the United States has experienced a downturn in 2019 and will stabilize at current levels in the later stage; offshore drilling activities in the Gulf of Mexico will resume in 2020; Canada Drilling activity will decrease by 30% in 2019, and it is expected to be difficult to change in 2020; Brazil's offshore drilling activity is expected to gradually recover; in the Eastern Hemisphere, the Middle East and North Sea drilling activities will remain active, but the Caspian Sea and some natural gas producing areas Will be adversely affected by current oil and gas prices. It is expected that the global OCTG demand in 2020 will be slightly lower than in 2019, mainly due to the decline in US demand and the destocking of users in the Middle East.

Despite this, Tenaris still expects sales to improve in 2020. Tenaris predicts that the first quarter of 2020's operating results will be the same as the fourth quarter of 2019. With the synergy effect of the integration of IPSCO companies gradually appearing, coupled with cost optimization and reduction of capital occupation to achieve results, 2020 results are still expected.

AllVallourec judged that after destocking in the fourth quarter of 2019, sales in the North American market will recover in the first quarter of 2020, and prices will rebound. With the integration of North American OCTG production capacity, Vallourec's market share is expected to increase. In South America, as Petrobras and several international oil companies increase the number of wells drilled, high-end OCTG shipments are likely to surge in the second quarter of 2020. In 2020, Brazil's iron ore production will strive to maintain the level of 2019, but prices may be lowered, mainly depending on the demand situation in the Chinese market. In addition, Vallourec expects the European industrial market to continue to show signs of improvement.

AllVallourec's main business goal in 2020 is to achieve an EBITDA of 500 million Euros to achieve better free cash flow; a capital investment of 200 million Euros and continuous optimization of working capital occupation levels. On February 16, 2020, Edouard Guinotte was appointed as the new Chairman of Vallourec. He said that with reshaping competitiveness and continuously optimizing the asset-liability structure, Vallourec will continue to strengthen its position as a leader in providing high-end pipe solutions in the world.

However, with the recent sharp drop in oil prices and the impact of the new crown pneumonia epidemic on the global economy, it remains to be seen whether the expectations of the two giants will become reality.