Since the beginning of July, the market price of coke has gradually recovered. In the first trading week of July, the price of secondary metallurgical coke in Linfen, Shanxi was RMB 2,690/ton, an increase of 120 yuan/ton from the end of June; the ex-factory price of secondary metallurgical coke in Shandong was 2700 yuan/ton~2740 yuan/ton with tax included , Rose slightly. From August 2nd to 6th, coke companies actively or passively restricted production due to factors such as environmental protection and high raw material coal prices. The supply of coke became tight, which led to the continuous rise of coke market prices. The price of secondary metallurgical coke in Shijiazhuang, Hebei was RMB 2,580/ton, an increase of RMB 120/ton from the previous week. In mid-August, the market price of coke realized the third and fourth rounds of increase. As of August 18, coke prices in East China have achieved 4 rounds of increases. According to data monitoring from the China Iron and Steel Association, at the end of July, the price of metallurgical coke increased by 44.77% year-on-year; on August 13, the price of coke was 2,848 yuan/ton, up 10.64% from the previous month.

From July to August, iron and steel enterprises in various regions increased their production restrictions and reduced production, and crude steel output continued to decline. According to statistics from the China Iron and Steel Association, in early August, the daily crude steel output of key steel companies was 2.0439 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 4.4%, and a decline for two consecutive days. The demand for coke by steel companies has significantly weakened; iron ore and other steel raw materials Prices have also fallen continuously. In such an environment, the coke market price has bucked the trend. What is the reason for the increase?

First, under the background of carbon peak and carbon neutrality, the coking industry has limited production and reduced production. At the end of June and the beginning of July, most coal and coke production companies in Shanxi, Hebei, Shandong and other regions simmered furnaces and restricted production, and the production restriction ratio was 30% to 50%. Individual regions in Shanxi issued the "Hundred-day Tackling Action Plan for Air Pollution Remediation", requiring some coking companies to extend the coking time to 28 to 36 hours, and coking companies to limit production by 15% to 30%; in some areas in Shandong, inspections are frequent and coking companies to limit production , The supply is affected; some coke companies in Hebei and other places are affected by environmental inspections and power restrictions, and some limit production by 20% to 30%.

The second is that the price of coking coal has risen sharply, which has caused the cost of coke production to rise. Since July, the tight supply of coking coal has intensified, the supply gap has increased, and the price has risen sharply. On the one hand, coking coal mines are affected by extreme weather such as safe production, the new crown pneumonia epidemic and heavy rains, and the production increase is limited; on the other hand, the import volume of coking coal has declined. In the first half of 2021, my country’s coking coal import volume has decreased by 15.84 million tons year-on-year. It is expected that the second half of the year will still decrease by about 5 million tons year-on-year. As a result, the domestic supply of coking coal market is tight, leading to an accelerated rise in coking coal prices in July. Anze's low-sulfur main coking coal (S05G85) accepted the tax-included quotation once reached about 3150 yuan/ton, breaking a record high. According to the monitoring of the China Iron and Steel Association, on August 13, the price of coking coal was 2,635 yuan/ton, an increase of 11.89% from the previous month. As the price of coking coal continues to rise, the cost pressure on coking companies continues to increase, and some coking companies not only shrink their profits, but even lose money. In order to alleviate the cost pressure, in desperation, coking enterprises have raised coke prices for several consecutive rounds.

The third is the change in the coke trade situation, which has an impact on the domestic coke market. According to data released by the General Administration of Customs, in June, my country imported 55,600 tons of coke, down 74.70% year-on-year and 41.77% month-on-month; the average price of imported coke was US$259.47/ton, up 19.0% year-on-year and 29.83% month-on-month. From January to June, my country imported 865,100 tons of coke, a year-on-year increase of 16.0%; the average price of imported coke was US$304.48/ton, a year-on-year increase of 30.61%. It can be seen that the price increase of coke imports this year is not small.

In June, my country exported 695,500 tons of coke, a year-on-year increase of 124.57%; the average price of coke exports was US$321.93/ton, a year-on-year increase of 52.26%. From January to June, my country exported a total of 3.4193 million tons of coke, a year-on-year increase of 94.48%; the average export price was US$329.42/ton, a year-on-year increase of 48.14%. It can be seen from the coke import and export data that my country's coke is still dominated by exports, which also makes the domestic market insufficient coke supply.