This week, affected by the landing of Typhoon "fireworks", there were heavy rains in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai and Fujian in East China, with a temperature drop of 3-5 degrees Celsius. Affected by the cooling, the civil power load in East China fell and the daily consumption of power plants decreased. Although there may be sunny weather in East China again in early August, after passive storage this week, the coal storage of the power plant is expected to increase slightly, the family has no fear of coal storage, and the desire to continue large-scale procurement is weakened. In addition, in summer, many areas in the south carry out peak shifting production, and energy consuming industries such as cement stop and limit production to make way for civil power; At this time, once it continues to rain in the south, the civil power load will drop, and the daily consumption of the power plant will fall, so as to realize the passive accumulation of reservoirs, and the demand will be slightly weakened. It is worth noting that the dog days this year are a little long. In previous years, the dog days were only 30 days, while the dog days in 2021 were 40 days; From July 11 to July 21, from August 10 to the end of August 19. After the end of the "autumn tiger", it will not be really cool until mid and late September. From now until the end of August, the civil power load is still high, and the daily consumption of the power plant remains at a medium high level.

It is expected that the rise in coal prices will narrow in the late part of this month, and the real turning point of the coal market should be in mid August. First of all, since late this month, the northern region has gradually bid farewell to the rainy weather. The northern coal port is mainly dominated by sunny weather to facilitate coal loading and unloading operations and improve the efficiency of port coal shipping. Secondly, key coal producing areas such as Shanxi, Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia responded to the call of their superiors, increased production, supply and transportation, and accelerated the release of high-quality production capacity; In particular, large and medium-sized state-owned coal enterprises play an exemplary role, improve the fulfillment rate of long-term cooperation, and organize production according to their maximum capacity on the premise of ensuring safety. The transportation volume of Datong Qinhuangdao line, Shuohuang line and Mongolia Hebei line will also be significantly increased. The coal storage in China's ports around the Bohai Sea will increase, so that high-quality coal is no longer rare. The coal storage of some power plants with low coal storage in the early stage will return to a high level, and the coal price will tend to be stable. Thirdly, the three volt days will end at the end of August, which means that the hot weather will end at the end of August. It is expected that traders with goods in hand will no longer cover their goods and begin to speed up their sales and increase the quantity of coal shipped to the market in mid August; The downstream selectivity will be enhanced, and the coal price of ports around the Bohai Sea will fall steadily. Fourth, after the country cancelled trade with Australia, domestic end users further increased coal imports from other countries, and Canada, the United States, Colombia and South Africa became China's main sources of coal imports. In addition, Mongolia will continue to increase its imports to make up for the shortfall in the reduction of Indonesian coal shipments in the rainy season.

After the bad compensation in late this month and early August, the coal storage in the power plant increased slowly. Near the end of summer, due to the decline of daily consumption, the power plant inventory is passively built, and the enthusiasm to continue large-scale procurement will decline. After the reduction of coal procurement in the market, the support of coal price will weaken. It is expected that in the middle and late August, the coal price of ports around the Bohai Sea will enter the downward channel.