On October 27th, the coal "three brothers" collectively lowered their limit. Among them, the main contract of coking coal and coke futures fell by 8.99% at the opening, and the price of the main 2201 contract of thermal coal futures fell below 1,200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10%. One month low.

Ruan Xinan, an analyst at Yongan Futures, told the Futures Daily reporter that before coal prices fell, the upward momentum was mainly due to the shortage of supply and the unexpected increase in demand. The continuous destocking of thermal coal contributed to the upward price increase. In the second half of the year, as the country continuously introduced relevant policies and measures to ensure the supply of thermal coal and stabilize coal prices, the output of thermal coal production areas was gradually released. At the same time, downstream demand was seasonally declining, and under the pattern of supply increase and demand decrease, thermal coal inventory began Accumulation quickly, and the problem of coal shortage is alleviated. In addition, in terms of cost, the closing price of thermal coal in North Port is about 550 yuan/ton. Obviously, there was a big bubble in the previous market price above 2500 yuan/ton, which deviated from the rational price range, and the administrative price limit gave fanatical speculation. The mood has cooled down quickly.

"Although Bijiao began to accumulate in September due to the weakening of the downstream molten iron, it passively followed the rise due to the strength of thermal coal. Therefore, with the rapid decline of thermal coal prices, the price of bijiao will follow the decline and return to the fundamentals. Ruan Xinan said that under the premise of the current poor performance of steel demand, the demand for bi-coke from blast furnaces is relatively weak. As the profits of finished products continue to be squeezed, the high-level bi-coke prices will also decline due to negative feedback.

Zeng Xiang, an analyst at Yide Futures, said that coal was originally in the process of declining, and the state has introduced a series of measures to ensure supply and stabilize prices. In addition, on Wednesday, the main coal producing areas of Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Mongolia responded to the state’s call, all starting to implement 1,200 yuan. The coal pit-mouth price limit per ton and the market’s news that it may further limit the pit-mouth price to more than 500 yuan/ton in the later period, the market panic has increased.

In the spot market, according to the reporter's understanding, the current transaction price of 5,500 kcal thermal coal at the port has fallen from the previous 2,550 yuan/ton to 1,950 yuan/ton, and the origin price has also dropped sharply in the past two days, and there are signs of further decline. The spot price of coal coke is still strong. Coking companies proposed the 12th round of increase this week, but they have not been accepted by steel mills. At present, the spot price of quasi-level coke port is 4250 yuan/ton, which is equivalent to the disk price of 4550 yuan/ton, and the coking coal warehouse receipt price is 3800 yuan/ton, which is stable.

Looking ahead, Ruan Xinan believes that the current spot and futures prices of coal are still high compared to previous years, and the decline in prices will not lead to a contraction of supply. Assuming that demand remains weak, coal prices will continue to run weaker. As far as thermal coal is concerned, its downstream corresponds to the performance of the macro economy, especially the manufacturing industry. The current domestic coal production has exceeded the level of the same period last year, but the demand level has also maintained a positive year-on-year growth. Therefore, if the demand side can maintain a higher year-on-year growth in the peak season Growth rate, thermal coal will maintain a tight balance before the end of the year. In addition, the current imported thermal coal price is about 1,500 yuan/ton. The downward spot price will test the support of import costs, and the futures market has been upside down.

"The coal coke end mainly focuses on the level of demand for finished products. From the current demand for steel, it is difficult to support the high price of finished products. The continued decline in the price of finished products will drive the price of charge downwards, and the high valuation of coal coke will also be suppressed. Possibly.” Ruan Xinan said that overall, due to the ease of coal supply, the main logic of the market has shifted from speculation on energy prices to support for transaction demand.

Zeng Xiang believes that in the short term, the overall price of coal will remain weak. First, because of policy fermentation, panic needs to be released; second, the current contradiction between supply and demand is easing, daily consumption is still at a seasonally low level, and overall supply is still loose. The contradictions in winter will gradually become prominent after mid-November.