I thought that the market would turn for the better in the second half of this month, and coal prices would stop falling and stabilize. However, the current situation has changed. Due to the tightening of upstream safety and environmental inspections, the release of production capacity has been blocked; the main transportation channel-Daqin Line, will be overhauled in spring and coal supply will be affected. In addition, the daily consumption of downstream power plants has maintained a medium-to-high level, and some users have reduced coal storage and other factors, and the enthusiasm of downstream transportation has resumed. This week, coal prices in ports and production areas will stop falling and stabilize, and rebound slightly.

In early April, production safety accidents occurred successively in Chiyu Coal Mine in Shanxi, Dongfeng Coal Mine in Guizhou, and Fengyuan Coal Mine in Xinjiang. It is very rare that three consecutive coal mine safety production accidents occurred within five days, which also forced the coal mine safety inspection to be upgraded again. On April 9, the Natural Resources Bureau of Yijinhuoluo Banner of the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region issued a document stating that seven mines including Shenhua Liuta Coal Mine would stop issuing coal tickets for one week. In addition, the Shaanxi Coal Mine Safety Supervision Bureau issued a notice that from mid-April to mid-May, super-capacity production supervision of all production coal mines in the province will be carried out with branch supervision as the main and provincial bureau random inspections as the supplement.

When coal prices at the port climbed to 742 yuan/ton in the second half of last month, futures fell suddenly, superimposed by three factors, including the end of the downstream replenishment period and the excessively rapid price increase in the previous period. The coal price turned around and fell; while the National Development and Reform Commission convened coal, Electricity companies held meetings to increase production and ensure supply, and stabilize coal prices, which even gave traders emotional ups and downs. However, from the market situation in early April, coal production capacity has not been significantly released, and production is basically based on the approved production capacity. After safety inspections become stricter, coal supply is expected to be further tightened; however, under the condition of overhaul of the Daqin line, limited resources are diverted, and it is not easy for Qinhuangdao Port to increase its inventory to more than 5 million tons. In addition, although the spot shipments of the previous period drove market prices down, the quotations of high-calorie and low-sulfur coal types remained strong; starting yesterday, futures rose and opportunities for the coal market reappeared.

From the perspective of the daily consumption and coal storage of power plants, daily consumption has decreased steadily, but the decline is very limited, while coal storage in power plants has rebounded slightly, but is still at a low level. From the perspective of coal storage in key power plants, coastal power plants, and power plants in the eight southern provinces, the terminal inventory is still at a low level, which means that hidden worries have always existed and have not been resolved. It's just that it is currently in the off-season for civilian power, and the daily consumption of terminal power plants is not high. Waiting for the price of coal to fall before pulling in, concealing the release of demand and the desire of power plants to replenish the inventory. However, as the daily consumption of power plants recovers, the inventory of terminal power plants may continue to fall, and some users have an increasingly strong desire to replenish the inventory.

Follow-up market trends. In the first half of the year, affected by the suppression of demand, the relatively loose coal ticket at the beginning of the month, and the increase in long-term coal, the market is not tight, and the overall supply and demand structure has not changed significantly. However, as the peak of coal consumption approaches, the market will gradually become more active, and power plants will become more enthusiastic about purchasing and pulling transportation. The rise in coal prices is expected to come; it is expected that the rush for thermal coal will begin this week, and coal prices in the port market will rebound strongly. .