The coal market can be said to be changing rapidly. Looking back on last week, the port coal price was still declining. Some experts believe that it would be good if the decline was stopped in March. The rise of coal prices needs to wait until the end of April. However, entering this week, the market suddenly turned for the better, people were caught off guard, and high-quality low-sulfur coal could not be sold! Coal prices in the port market have risen again!

First of all, the Spring River Plumbing Duck Prophet, ocean freight has always been the leading indicator of the market trend. On February 10, ocean freight was the first to rise; after the long Spring Festival holiday, with the release of market pallets, the demand for coal improved, and ocean freight rose accelerated. In less than a month, the freight rate for coal ships with 50,000 to 60,000 tons from Qinhuangdao to Guangzhou has more than doubled from the lowest level of 25.1 yuan/ton to the current 62 yuan/ton.

Secondly, after the fifteenth of the first month, downstream industrial enterprises resumed production, and the daily consumption of power plants rose rapidly; the pressure of superimposing supply was reduced, and the two sessions were held, and many other favorable factors were supported. Market sentiment improved and downstream inquiries increased. At present, low-sulfur and high-calorie coal is the main source. Due to the reduction of market liquidity and cost support, sellers’ quotations have risen, and even they are reluctant to sell. However, the downstream acceptance of high-priced coal is limited, and actual transactions are not many. However, when the price advantage of imported coal is no longer, the demand for domestic coal from power plants will increase in the later period.

Again, large-scale procurement has not yet arrived. At present, it is the off-season of coal use, and the civil power load is low; superimposed on the high level of coal storage in power plants, it will take a period of time to consume high inventories. In addition, some imported coal is used as a supplement, and users in coastal areas are mainly long-term associations, and there are not many market purchases. It is expected that large-scale purchases and shipments should be in May and June, that is, before the arrival of the "peak summer".

Fourth, this round of rising coal prices is difficult to sustain. Entering this week, the port market’s demand for cargo inquiries has increased, and shippers have shown varying degrees of price-defying psychology; however, downstream demand is generally weak, and the Bohai Rim port inventory is still at a high level of inventory. After coal prices have stabilized and stabilized, they rebounded in the short term The strength is limited. The real coal price increase should be after the spring overhaul on the Daqin line, but before the arrival of summer.

In terms of production areas, downstream resumption of work and port coal prices have stabilized and rebounded. Production areas are not willing to cut prices, so wait and see the later market. After the snow fell, the freight rate of the cars in the production area increased, and traders had money but it was difficult to rent a car, because everyone wanted to buy the bottom.

March and April entered the traditional off-season for coal use. Power plants have a long passive replenishment period and there is not much pressure on procurement. In the short term, power plants may continue to rely on long-term cooperation and rigid demand, which will provide limited market support. The follow-up market needs to pay attention to downstream industrial power load, changes in power plant daily consumption, and inventory digestion.