The coal market continues to tighten in the second half of the year, mines, ports and shipping speed up rush
Dec. 22, 2020
In the second half of the year, the temperature across the country will turn cold, and the heating load for civilian heating will increase seasonally. At the same time, in the final year of the 13th Five-Year Plan, all regions will strive to sprint the annual goal and achieve a perfect ending, thereby stimulating infrastructure and Real estate accelerates rush to work. In addition, due to the second outbreak of the epidemic in Europe and the United States, and the impact of the epidemic in Southeast Asian factories, production was blocked. The domestic coastal areas such as Zhejiang and Guangdong have accepted orders for some epidemic prevention and home-based foreign trade enterprises, and industrial power consumption has been supported. Despite the implementation of orderly power consumption patterns such as peak staggered power rationing in many regions, the increase in power load and the increase in coal consumption are indisputable facts. The peak of hydropower substitution squeeze has passed, the amount of electricity purchased from coastal areas has decreased, and the daily consumption of coastal power plants has approached the level of the same period last year.
On the upstream side, a comprehensive survey of coal mine safety production was carried out, small coal mines were promoted to close and exit, and safety supervision of closed and technically improved coal mines was strengthened. However, the demand side continued to be strong, trucks in some areas were tight, and the enthusiasm for coal grabbing was very high. The daily consumption of terminal power plants has increased, and the inventories of coastal power plants, Ergang and Jiangnei have been lower year-on-year, and the enthusiasm for replenishment is still there. This year, under the influence of the La Niña phenomenon, there may be more extreme weather; under the pressure of ensuring supply, the major power plants of the terminal will no longer wait and send ships to the northern ports to rush to transport coal. The coal market continues to tighten, and the supply structure is tight. Terminal purchases are speeding up. Ship booking demand is optimistic, and shipping prices continue to rise.
In November, the electricity consumption of the whole society in the five southern provinces was 112.8 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 10.4%. From January to November, the electricity consumption of the whole society in the five southern provinces and autonomous regions was 1,183.6 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 4.4%, which was 4 percentage points higher than that in the first half of the year. Electricity consumption increased strongly. While domestic demand is recovering, China has also undertaken a large number of foreign orders; in November this year, my country's new export order index was 51.5%, 0.5 percentage points higher than last month, and it was in an expansion period for three consecutive months. In addition to the cold winter expectations, all regions are stepping up to reserve coal. The combination of these factors has led to the improvement of the coal market. From January to November this year, my country imported a total of 265 million tons of coal, a year-on-year decrease of 10.8%. Imported coal decreased month by month, which also constituted a warm current that promoted the improvement of the domestic market. In the short term, my country is unlikely to loosen Australian coal, and it is difficult to release the new quota for Australian coal as scheduled. Affected by factors such as the epidemic situation and environmental protection, Mongolia’s imports have decreased, which has brought rare development opportunities to domestic coal mines, railways, ports, and shipping companies. At the same time, it also raised questions about whether coal production and transportation can guarantee coal demand. Severe test.
In the second half of the year, downstream demand is expected to exceed expectations. Before the arrival of the new year, major power plants will spare no effort to increase shipping capacity and rush to northern ports to pull coal. Domestic mining, roads, ports and shipping and other relevant units will earnestly implement and implement higher-level requirements, adhere to political positions, focus on production organization and coordination, improve production and transportation efficiency, and fully meet the coal demand in coastal areas.