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Stable performance of coal market demand is expected to improve in the second half of the year

May. 20, 2020

Coal prices have shown signs of stabilization and recovery in recent days after a two-month sharp decline. According to the latest CCI power coal price, as of May 12, the price of cci5500 power coal was 473 yuan / ton, 3 yuan / ton higher than that of the previous period; the price of cci5000 power coal was 409 yuan / ton, 4 yuan / ton higher than that of the previous period.


Yang Jie, a researcher at Yimei Research Institute, told reporters that at the end of April, the power plant continued to purchase electric coal, the speed of coal inventory removal at the northern port and the delivery of futures resulted in multiple factors at the same time, leading to the structural tension of coal. According to the latest data, as of May 14, the total amount of coal storage in the port around Bohai Sea is two thousand two hundred and twenty-two point nine 10000 tons, down from the previous day twenty-six point four Million tons. The daily consumption of six coastal power plants is fifty-six point six three 10000 tons, up from the same period last year 20.3% 。 Inventory is one thousand three hundred and eleven point seven four 10000 tons, down year on year 5.1% 。


Yang Jie also said that the market "buy up do not buy down" sentiment soon appeared. Some coal traders who have goods in their hands can't get them out, which has pushed the price of coal up further.


In addition, the industry also heard that some provinces have taken certain measures for coal mine production to further promote the improvement of supply and demand.


According to a document obtained by the author, the relevant department of Datong City in Shanxi Province recently issued a document requiring 20 coal mines to be shut down for maintenance in the near future. According to the coal market, the recent sales strategy of Tongmei has indeed changed.


According to the research of Mysteel coal and coke business department, the coke enterprises in Shandong Province may carry out a comprehensive production restriction to complete the coal consumption reduction work. In the future, relevant documents may be issued to require Shandong coke enterprises to further reduce their production capacity or limit their production throughout the year.


Operating revenue of Coal Enterprises above Designated Size in the first quarter four thousand two hundred and ninety point seven Billion yuan, down year on year 12.7% ; realize profit four hundred and twenty-one point one Billion yuan, down year on year 29.9% , the industry loss has reached 43%.


According to the report issued by China Coal Industry Association on May 14, the industrial and economic growth rate will return to its proper level in the second half of the year, and the total demand for coal will be better than that in the first half of the year.


Zhou Tai team of coal industry of Anxin Securities believes that the expectation of policy end intervention is relatively strong in the near future. At the same time, the production reduction and price protection of coal enterprises to maintain the coal market price will start in May. In addition, in the short term, the coal mine safety situation will be stricter, and the expectation of supply contraction is strong. In the later stage, with the recovery of demand, coal prices are expected to rebound.


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