Coal prices in some production areas such as Yulin have fallen. The reason why coal mines took the initiative to lower coal prices was not because of the decline in market demand, but because of the excessive increase in the previous period, stopping to rest, and waiting for users who left behind. According to reports, during the period between the end of June and the beginning of July, some coal mines in Shanxi, Henan, Hubei and other places ceased production. It is expected that the subsequent market will remain tight. The price of coal may rise at a daily limit, or may rise and fall slightly, but the overall trend is still upward. In terms of ports, the actual transaction price of thermal coal in the 5,500 kcal market is about 1,000 yuan/ton, but the transaction volume is not large.

At present, factors such as high coal prices, strict policies and easing imports continue to suppress the pace of downstream purchases, the release of market pallets is limited, the overall transportation demand bottomed out, and ocean freight rates stopped falling and stabilized. In the midsummer, the inventory of some power plants is still low, the demand is not weak, and the demand for replenishment is large; on June 18, the power load of Guangdong power grid reached 128 million kilowatts, a record high. Superimposed on the strong rebound in foreign trade, the rise in international oil prices and the increase in costs, it is good for the domestic market, and there is still room for coal prices to rise.

Last week, the market sentiment was positive. Affected by rising costs, market quotations continued to rise, and downstream procurement demand was gradually released; however, the main power plants still resisted the high prices, the number of transactions was not large, and the port coal price rose steadily. In addition, before Daqing, safety and over-production inspections became stricter, and it is difficult to increase supply. The daily consumption of power plants in the eight coastal provinces has exceeded 2 million tons on many occasions. The "sword of sword" hangs overhead. Once the upward trend is too strong, it may trigger the introduction of stronger policies, and there will be greater uncertainty in the market. On June 12, the National Development and Reform Commission formulated and issued the "Administrative Measures for the Price Index of Important Goods and Services (Trial)." On June 17, the China Coal Transportation and Marketing Association held the 2021 coal medium and long-term contract performance supervision work meeting, requiring that the supply of goods be organized in accordance with the state's work requirements for medium and long-term contracts, and the contract should be fulfilled seriously. On June 18, the Yulin Coal Association issued a document to establish a suggested price mechanism for coal trading in Yulin City, and the price will be adjusted once a week. The promulgation of many policies may play a role in stabilizing coal prices and increasing reliable supply.

This week, due to factors such as vigorous industrial production and increased high temperature and sweltering weather, the daily consumption of power plants remained at a medium-to-high level. Although the inventory rebounded slightly, it remained at a low level over the same period. Before July 1st, the power plant had to hit the inventory to a high level, and users would replenish the inventory one after another, and the acceptance of prices would increase. In terms of hydropower, the recent inflow of the Three Gorges Power Station has not been high, and the outflow has also been low. Compared with the same period in previous years, hydropower is at a relatively weak level. Although hydropower began to generate power and thermal power was reduced, it failed to have a significant impact on the daily consumption of thermal power. The daily consumption of power plants continued to rise and hit a recent high.