Scrap prices are expected to rebound in November
Nov. 06, 2020
According to data from the Layue Regeneration platform, from October 26 to November 1, the total transaction value of the platform exceeded 15.2 billion yuan, an increase of 300 million yuan from the previous month, an increase of 2.01%; the total supply was 6.34 million tons, an increase of 14 from the previous month. 10,000 tons, an increase of 2.26%. Last week, domestic scrap steel prices rose, steel mills purchased on-demand, and some key steel companies adjusted their purchase prices based on the arrival and inventory conditions.
Recently, the strong demand for finished products has driven the overall rebound in the price of black products, and the price of scrap has increased. Especially after leading steel mills in East China raised scrap prices, it boosted market confidence, and other regions followed up with scrap prices.
From the perspective of supply, traders generally receive goods with a strong willingness to price, and often use the "fast in and out" method to sell scrap. The arrival of scrap steel from steel mills is average, and steel mills purchase scrap on demand based on usage and scrap stocks. From the perspective of scrap stocks in steel mills, scrap stocks of steel companies in many places have declined slightly, which has increased the absorption of goods. Among them, the scrap steel prices in Central and Southwest China are generally at a high level, and the steel mills can reach the goods.
At present, high-quality scrap resources are still tight. In addition, some steel mills have insufficient scrap arrivals and many other positive factors to support scrap prices. Laiyue Recycling expects scrap prices to rebound in November.
Laiyue Regeneration believes that the following aspects should be paid attention to in November: North China is gradually entering the heating season, and environmental protection and production restriction policies are frequently introduced. The Ministry of Ecology and Environment also emphasizes that the direction of air pollution prevention and control in autumn and winter will remain unchanged and the intensity will not decrease. At present, domestic steel supply has entered a staged top area. Later steel supply may shrink slightly, but it is difficult to see a sharp drop. Therefore, scrap consumption is unlikely to drop significantly. In addition, the current price difference between iron ore and steel scrap is relatively small, and steel mills can increase the scrap ratio to relieve cost pressure, so they are more inclined to use scrap steel. In addition, as the winter enters, steel mills are facing winter storage and demand for stockpiling; traders are more willing to support prices, which supports scrap prices.
Overall, Laiyue Recycling expects that the scrap market may continue to rise and fall, and then maintain a weak and volatile operation, but there is still room for rebound in some areas.