Rigidly needed replenishment increased, coal prices rose across the board
Apr. 22, 2021
Up to now, coal storage in key power plants across the country has dropped to 55.3 million tons, and the number of days available for coal storage has been 13 days. Coal storage in power plants in eight coastal provinces dropped to 22.61 million tons, and the number of days available for coal storage remained at 12.5 days. The coal storage of the six coastal power plants is about to drop below 14 million tons, and the coal storage of a small number of power plants has dropped to about 7 days.
At present, the spring maintenance of some power plants is coming to an end, and the electricity load is about to be fully restored; while the rainfall in the south is not high, the role of UHV power generation is limited, the thermal power is increased, and the power plant inventory is expedited. The current international epidemic situation is severe, and China can be described as a pure land; therefore, it is expected that industrial orders will return to the country, and subsequent power plants are expected to consume more coal.
Recently, environmental protection and safety inspections have continued, and the Daqin line has undergone sound inspections and corrections, with little increase in supply. With the recovery of downstream enthusiasm, futures rising, and traders actively pushing prices, starting from this Tuesday, port prices have stopped falling and rebounded. The place of production kept up, coal prices in Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Mongolia rose as scheduled, and coal carts again began to line up all night. No one expected the market to change so quickly? Last week, coal mines were falling prices, customers were still waiting and no one dared to pull, and now they are starting to grab coal again. Starting from Tuesday, some coal mine stations in Shanxi and Inner Mongolia stopped falling across the board. With the rise of coal prices in ports, starting on Wednesday, coal prices in some coal mines began to rise tentatively, and only some areas are still falling inertially.
Recently, coal mine accidents have occurred frequently in my country. Safety supervision in the "Three West" areas, the main coal producing area, has become more stringent. Some coal mines in Inner Mongolia have been halted for rectification or the issuance of coal pipes. , The impact of coal production is small, and some coal washing plants are affected and stop production. The overall supply of the main producing areas is still tight, and coal prices are relatively strong. Coupled with the overhaul of the Daqin Railway, the average daily transport volume remained between 900,000 to 1 million tons; the Bohai Rim port inventory continued to decrease. So far, the total inventory has fallen to about 24.02 million tons, a decrease of 1.92 million tons from the beginning of the month.
Downstream demand for goods increased, market sentiment continued to improve, port traders were reluctant to sell and the sentiment spread; the daily consumption of terminal power plants remained at a year-on-year high, and the long-term cooperation was still the main reason for pulling transportation. The follow-up northbound replenishment demand will be significantly released. As summer approaches, the demand for replenishment of downstream power plants has gradually increased, and the acceptance of market coal has begun to increase; at the same time, the demand for non-electric coal such as chemical industry and building materials continues to support the coal and shipping markets, driving the overall market for spot transactions. Prices have risen steadily.
Generally speaking, it is difficult to implement the supply guarantee policy in the short term, and the upstream has increased security inspections, environmental protection, and over-production supervision; in the second half of this month, there is still room for the spot price to rise.