Recently, rebar prices have continued to rebound due to the rebound in downstream demand. Last week, rebar futures contract 2001 rose 4.78% to 3,549 yuan / ton. In terms of spot, Shanghai rose 40 yuan / ton to 3760 yuan / ton, Guangzhou rose 50 yuan / ton to 4100 yuan / ton, Beijing prices were flat.

Demand is released earlier than in previous years

According to weekly transaction data, the average daily turnover this week was 235,000 tons, up 20,000 tons from last week. This year's transaction release turning point is about two weeks ahead of previous years, so the downward turning point of the volume will be earlier than in previous years, and is expected to be in early October.

From January to August, real estate development investment increased by 10.5% year-on-year, down 0.1 percentage points from January to July; commercial housing sales area decreased by 0.6% year-on-year, 0.7 percentage points higher than January-July; real estate new construction increased by 8.9 percent year-on-year. %, down 0.6 percentage points from January to July. The current real estate market is showing accelerated sales but slowing down, mainly because real estate companies urgently need to withdraw funds.

Looking forward to the future real estate trend, the medium and long term is relatively relatively determined. As a typical capital-dependent industry, tightening real estate financing will put a lot of pressure on its investment. Recently, there have been reports that a number of banks have tightened the amount of real estate development loans, and in principle controlled the level at the end of March. This means that the balance of real estate development loans will be reduced from 11.04 trillion yuan at the end of the second quarter to 10.85 trillion yuan at the end of the first quarter. It is said that there is still the possibility of further reduction in the future.

According to central bank data, the balance of real estate development loans at the end of the first quarter was 10.85 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.9%. The growth rate was 3.7 percentage points lower than the end of the previous year; the balance of real estate development loans at the end of the second quarter was 11.04 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.6%. The growth rate was 4.3 percentage points lower than the end of the previous quarter.

Electric furnace profits continue to shrink

In the week of September 13, the utilization rate of rebar capacity of national building steel mills was 73.5%, a slight decrease of 0.7 percentage points from last week; the output of rebar in national building steel mills was 3.353 million tons, down by 31,800 tons from last week. As steel prices fall, electric furnace profits continue to shrink. The decline in profits has led to a low level of capacity utilization for electric furnaces.

Inventory began to gradually

Rebar stocks were gradually removed last week. In the week of September 19, the stock of rebar intermediate links was 7,772,300 tons, down 629,200 tons from the previous period. Among them, the rebar steel 35 city social inventory of 5,805,500 tons, down by 392,000 tons from the previous period, rebar steel mill inventory of 2,239,800 tons, down 273,200 tons from last week.

This week, the restocking speed of rebar stocks has accelerated significantly compared with the previous weeks, mainly due to the significant decline in rebar production in the context of continued shrinking profits. At the same time, the downstream transactions were strong, and most of the inventory was also digested.

Overall, on the supply side, due to the strong scrap prices this year, the profit of electric furnaces is hard to pick up. However, iron ore production will recover further in the fourth quarter, which may drive down the price of iron ore. In the context of cost reduction, long-term profit or recovery, which in turn drives steel supply. On the demand side, the policy orientation is very obvious, and the long-term turning point of real estate has arrived. Investors should be short on the rallies.