On the occasion of the peak season of traditional demand for "Golden September, Silver October", the trend of the rebar market in September has become a hot topic of discussion among steel traders. On August 25, Liang Taigeng, general manager of Shanghai Hualei Enterprise Development Co., Ltd., said in an interview with reporters that the rebar market price is expected to fluctuate in September.

Liang Taigeng first reviewed the operation of the rebar market in August. In August, the rebar price adjustment range in Shanghai-Hangzhou area reached about 300 yuan/ton. In mid-August, the price of rebar experienced a rapid decline. Since August 23, the price of rebar has rebounded by more than 100 yuan/ton.

Focusing on the "Golden Sept" rebar market, Liang Taigeng analyzed the supply and demand.

From the perspective of supply, although steel companies in some regions will resume production and new production after they meet environmental protection standards, under the current "dual control" policy of production capacity and output, steel companies will increase their production restrictions in September and later , The production of rebar is expected to be difficult to increase.

In addition, the price difference between rebar and hot-rolled coil will also affect market supply. For example, on August 25, the price of φ16mm～φ20mm Grade III rebar in the Shanghai market was 5230 yuan/ton, while the price of 5.5mm×1500mm×C hot-rolled coil was 5710 yuan/ton, much higher than that of rebar. price. Liang Taigeng predicts that under the influence of the "dual control" policy, steel companies will be less active in producing rebar in the later stage than in producing hot rolled coils.

From the perspective of demand, due to the extreme heavy rainfall in some areas of the country in the early stage, the situation of prevention and control of the new crown pneumonia epidemic in some areas has become stricter, and the progress of construction works has been slow. Entering September, under the circumstance of weakening of the above-mentioned impact, downstream construction projects will accelerate their recovery, and even rush work will occur, which will boost the demand for rebar.

First of all, although the newly-started real estate area has declined recently, the scale of construction under construction is still large. It is expected that the demand for rebar in the real estate industry will remain strong in the later period.

Secondly, after entering September, the construction of infrastructure projects in various places will be accelerated. Recently, all parts of the country are sprinting for the annual target and tasks. The development and reform commissions in many places intensively finalized the "mission letter" for the second half of the year, and proposed to speed up the construction of major projects, make special debt project reserves to drive effective investment, and strive to form more physical workloads within the year, etc. target.

Finally, in recent months, due to capital shortages of some real estate companies, some projects have been suspended or postponed. Entering September, as the issuance of special bonds accelerates, the shortage of funds has eased, and funds will gradually come in place, which is good for infrastructure construction and will accelerate the start and construction of infrastructure projects.

In addition, Liang Taigeng also reminded steel traders to pay attention to other uncertain factors affecting the rebar market in September, mainly in the following aspects:

One is to pay attention to changes in regional supply and demand differences. Due to the different specific implementation plans of the production control policy in different regions, steel enterprises in some regions can control the production rhythm according to their own conditions, superimposing the recent regional market spreads at historical lows, and the regional resource liquidity and flow radius have shrunk sharply. Therefore, market participants should pay special attention to the differences in steel demand changes in North China, Central China, and South China.

The second is to pay attention to the impact of changes in the price of steel raw materials and fuels on the cost of steel companies. Recently, the price of coke has risen sharply due to the tight supply of coking coal resources. It is possible that the proportion of coke in the cost of steel per ton is close to or even more than that of iron ore. Moreover, the investment of steel companies in environmental protection and carbon reduction has gradually increased the cost of steel per ton. Therefore, market participants should pay close attention to changes in the production costs of steel companies.