Recently, Li Zhongshuang, general manager of Shanghai Ruikun Metal Materials Co., Ltd., said in an interview with the reporter of China Metallurgical News that after entering July, the cold and hot rolled coil market fluctuated and the operators were cautious about the market outlook. The internal market will not change much, and the price may fluctuate slightly.

Taking the Shanghai market as an example, on July 1, the price of hot rolled coils rose by RMB 50/ton to RMB 80/ton, and the price of cold rolled coil rose by RMB 30/ton to RMB 80/ton. After only one day, on July 2, the price began to fluctuate and fall, and the price of hot rolled coil fell by 80 yuan/ton. Overall, in early July, the market price of cold and hot rolled coils fluctuated volatility, market transactions were flat, and traders did not sell well, all of which were mainly sold at reduced prices.

In addition, Li Zhongshuang suggested that market participants should pay attention to other factors affecting the market outlook, mainly in the following aspects:

The first is to pay attention to changes in supply and inventory. Nowadays, the price of sheet metal and the price trend of long products such as rebar and wire rod are still wide, and the situation of “long and weak board” is still firm. On July 3, the Shanghai market, the price of Φ6.5 mm wire rod was 4160 yuan / ton, the price of 5.5 mm hot rolled coil was 3900 yuan / ton, and the price of wire rod was higher than the price of hot rolled coil 260 yuan / ton. As long-term profitability is better than that of sheet metal, it is easy for steel mills to tilt production capacity to long products, which will have a certain impact on market supply.

In terms of inventory, China Steel Industry Association's analysis of steel social stocks in June showed that hot rolled coil stocks reached 1.53 million tons in June, a decrease of 50,000 tons from the previous month, down 2.9%. Among them, the steel market inventory reached 1.36 million tons, a decrease of 40,000 tons from the previous month; the port inventory reached 180,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons from the previous month. Cold rolled coil stocks reached 2.01 million tons in June, an increase of 40,000 tons from the previous month, an increase of 1.8%. Among them, the steel market stocks were 1.69 million tons, an increase of 40,000 tons from the previous month; the port stocks reached 320,000 tons, basically the same as in May. Overall, the inventory of hot rolled coils has declined, while the increase in cold rolled coil stocks will have an impact on the supply of the entire sheet market in the later period.

The second is to pay attention to changes in demand. Recently, the production and sales situation of the automotive industry, which is the main user of cold and hot rolled coils, has been sluggish, and both production and sales have declined. According to the latest data released by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, China's automobile production and sales in May totaled 1.848 million and 1.913 million, respectively, down 21.2% and 16.4% year-on-year. In the first five months of this year, automobile production and sales volume reached 10.237 million units and 10.266 million units respectively, a year-on-year decrease of 13%. The automobile industry is in a downturn, and the demand for cold and hot rolled coils has declined, leading to a cold market. It is expected that the production and sales situation of the automobile industry will not improve in the short term, and the demand for cold and hot rolled coils will not increase.

The third is the change in the ex-factory price policy of steel mills. At present, the mill's ex-factory price policy has changed a lot, especially the steel spot market price fluctuates. A few days ago, a number of large steel companies introduced the July ex-factory price policy. Among them, the ex-factory price of cold and hot rolled coils is lowered by RMB 100/ton to RMB 150/ton, indicating that the steel mills are not optimistic about the market in July, which will also have an impact on the market outlook.