In the past month April, the cold and hot rolled coil market generally showed a volatile operation trend, and the price of hot rolled coil was significantly higher than that of cold rolled coil. Traders are relatively cautious and mainly ship. Recently, Li Zhongshuang, general manager of Shanghai Ruikun Metal Materials Co., Ltd., said in an interview with China Metallurgical News that in late May, the market price of cold and hot rolled coils is expected to fluctuate slightly.

Take the Shanghai market as an example. On the first trading day after the “May 1st” holiday, the cold and hot rolled coil market started smoothly. In the next few days, the price rose and fell, and the price range remained at 10 yuan/ton to 30 yuan. /Ton.

Li Zhongshuang believes that the factors that affect the market conditions in the later period are mainly the following:

The first is the impact of environmental protection and production restrictions. In April, the profitability of steel enterprises improved, the profit increased, and the production enthusiasm was high. Except for the environmental protection and limited production of steel mills in some areas, most of them were fully loaded. However, in May, the environmental protection limit in some areas will increase, and the capacity of steel mills will be curbed. Recently, Tangshan City, Hebei Province issued the “Intensified Management and Control Plan for Air Pollution Prevention and Control in the City in May”, and the time limit for management and control was from May 1st to 31st, which means that more than 50% of sintering machines, pellets, lime kiln blast furnaces in Hebei Province, Converter production equipment will be shut down and there will be uncertainty in the market supply.

Second, the prosperity of the automobile and home appliance industries will increase. Judging from the production and sales of the automobile and home appliance industry, although the cumulative retail sales of the national passenger vehicle market reached 5.078 million units in the first quarter of this year, down 10.5% year-on-year, steel traders believe that with the further improvement of the country, the consumption of automobiles and home appliances will be promoted. The implementation of the policy, the production and sales of the automobile and home appliance industries are expected to improve in the second half of May. Recently, the National Development and Reform Commission issued the “Implementation Plan for Promoting the Renewal of Consumption of Automobiles, Home Appliances, Consumer Electronics and Promoting the Development of Circular Economy (Draft for Comment)”, and plans to restart the “old-for-new” appliance, and the new green and intelligent home appliances can not be obtained. A subsidy of 13% on the price of the product. With the implementation of a series of consumer promotion policies in various places, the production and sales boom of automobiles and home appliances will be improved, and the demand intensity of cold and hot rolled coils will be improved.

Third, steel mills have a strong willingness to “price”. Since the beginning of this year, the prices of raw materials such as iron ore, scrap steel and coke have been at a high level, especially in the iron ore market. The rise in raw material prices has led to a significant contraction in steel mill efficiency. Under this circumstance, the willingness to increase the ex-factory price of steel mills will increase. For example, a large steel company in East China raised the ex-factory price of hot-rolled coils by RMB 170/ton in May. Based on this judgment, the purchase cost of traders will rise. Under this background, the prices of cold and hot rolled coils will not rise and fall, and they will still be dominated by small fluctuations.