The “Xinhua-China Iron Ore Price Index” shows that as of June 24, the inventory of iron ore in China’s ports (33 ports along the coast) was 10.63 million tons, which was lower than the previous statistical period (June 11 to June 17). 300,000 tons, down 0.29% from the previous month. The 62% iron ore price index of China's imported grade is 117, which is 9 units higher than the previous statistical period; the 58% grade iron ore price index is 109, which is 9 units higher than the previous statistical period.

Imported mining market rose sharply

From June 18 to June 24, the imported ore market continued to rise sharply. At the supply end, the shipment volume of iron ore has rebounded, and the amount of iron ore arrival has increased slightly. However, on the news, Rio Tinto said on June 19 that it is facing the challenges of mine operation, and the proportion of some low-grade products has increased. In the Bala area, the target shipment volume of iron ore in 2019 was 3.2-330 million tons. The public therefore has a certain contraction for the supply of imported ore. On the demand side, it is affected by the substantial increase in the new construction area of the previous real estate and the infrastructure policy. Although the operating rate of blast furnaces in the steel mills continued to decline, it remained at a high level. Under the background that the production enthusiasm of steel mills is still strong and the iron ore arrival volume is still not much improved, the port iron ore stocks have declined for the seventh consecutive period, and the iron ore index has risen sharply in the current period; At the high level, the profits of steel mills have narrowed, the downstream demand has been weak, and the price of iron ore has gradually declined.

Domestic iron ore market has risen

From June 18 to June 24, the domestic mining market rose across the board and demand was good. In the current demand period, the utilization rate of blast furnace capacity decreased by 0.5%, the utilization rate of electric furnace capacity decreased by 0.79%, and the output of steel products declined slightly. At the same time, on June 22, Tangshan City issued a document stating that the proportion of blast furnace production is not less than 50%, and also mentioned The blast furnace needs to stop production, and the steel production limit is obviously increased compared with the previous period. The steel output in the later period may continue to decline. There was no significant change in the supply side during the period. Recently, the price of imported ore and the international exchange rate have been constantly disturbed. Domestically produced fine powder has been favored by steel mills because of its cost-effective advantage. However, considering that iron ore prices have reached a five-year high and limited growth in the later period, we believe that domestically produced mineral prices will continue in the short term. The high position stabilized.

Domestic steel price oscillated

From June 18 to June 24, the steel market price oscillated. At the beginning of the period, due to the unsatisfactory turnover and the pessimistic attitude of the business, the spot price continued to fall. Later, as the futures market rebounded and the billet price was raised, the prices of some varieties were affected. In this period, the prices of construction steel, medium and heavy plate coils, hot rolling and cold rolling continued to oscillate and weakened, and the transactions were relatively light.

According to economic data, RMB loans increased by 1.18 trillion yuan in May, social financing scale increased by 1.4 trillion yuan, local debt was issued by 1251 billion yuan, and M2 balance increased by 8.5% year-on-year. It is still below market expectations, and macro pessimistic expectations are still to be repaired. In May, the growth rate of new construction area of real estate was significantly lower than that of the previous month. In May, the land purchase area and housing sales area remained negative, and the demand for real estate ended significantly. The manufacturing PMI for May was 49.4, lower than the dry line, and the manufacturing situation remains to be seen. June is the traditional off-season of the steel market. The weakening of seasonal demand has already appeared. However, with the gradual development of the limited production of steel mills around the country, we believe that the steel market will rebound in the short term.

The international shipping market is running strong

From June 18 to June 24, the international shipping market was weak. As of June 24, the BDI index was reported at 1258 points, up 165 points from the previous period, an increase of 15.10%. The freight rate from Brazil to China was US$18.418, up by US$1.141 from the previous period. The freight rate from Western Australia to China was US$7.409, up by US$0.045 from the previous period.