Port coal prices remain stable in mid to late
Jun. 22, 2021
In the middle and late months of this month, it is expected that the downstream coal demand will not change much. The daily consumption of power plants in the eight coastal provinces will remain at about 1.9 million tons, while the daily consumption of the six coastal power plants will remain between 700 and 750,000 tons. Due to the intertwining of favorable and unfavorable factors in the market, the coal transaction price is relatively stable. On the demand side, supported by the low price of long-term coal and a certain amount of imported coal, the quantity of coal in the purchase market is low, and the coal market and port delivery are both inconsistent. Lukewarm. It is expected that the closing price of thermal coal ports in the 5,500 kcal market will remain around 900 yuan/ton.
The factors that inhibit the rise of coal prices are as follows: 1. Approaching the summer, the cement industry in my country's Liaoning, Shandong, Jiangsu and other places will carry out staggered production, which will promote a decline in coal consumption and electricity consumption. It is especially important to note that the cement industry can afford high coal prices, and the reduction in coal consumption in this industry will curb the excessive rise of coal prices to a certain extent. 2. Rainwater in the southwest region has increased, clean energy is being used, the "West-to-East power transmission" has increased, and the incoming electricity from Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Guangdong and other places has increased, and the thermal power has been reduced. In addition, with the arrival of the rainy season and continuous rain in some parts of the south, the coal consumption of power plants will be affected. 3. Some enterprises in southern China implemented orderly and staggered electricity consumption, which reduced the electricity load and reduced coal consumption. 4. In order to reduce procurement costs, some power groups limit the purchase price of port coal bidding to 900 yuan/ton. 5. my country's coal imports are expected to increase slightly; the Indonesian month of Ramadan has passed, and the number of shipments is gradually recovering. In addition to Australian coal, Zhejiang, Jiangsu, and Fujian have fully liberalized imported coal control. The United States, Colombia and other countries have increased the amount of coal imported, and the domestic coastal areas have been replenished with coal resources, which played an important role in alleviating the pressure on the coal market.
Factors that support coal prices: 1. With the continuous consolidation of the foundation for economic stability and recovery, the industrial economy will continue to develop in a healthy manner, and the demand for industrial electricity will not drop significantly. 2. In June, coal pipe tickets began to be reissued, but the coal pipe tickets in the Ordos region were still issued strictly according to the approved production capacity. In addition, the production of open-pit coal mines was difficult to increase. The coal production capacity release situation in the main production areas has not improved significantly, and the market is still in short supply. 3. As Daqing is approaching the century, all localities have strictly enforced coal mine safety production, and the effect of coal supply guarantee may be affected. 4. This week, parts of southern North China, Huanghuai, Shaanxi and other places will have high temperature and sultry weather above 35°C. The coal consumption of power plants in the north is accelerating, and the production area market is hot, supporting coal prices at ports. 5. The Northeast Winter Reserve will start ahead of schedule. Winter comes early in the Northeast, and it is necessary to replenish and store coal in advance; at present, many power plants and coal storage yards are empty. With the acceleration of replenishment in Northeast my country, coal carts in the main producing areas of East Inner Mongolia, West Mengxi, and North Shanxi will increase, the market activity of producing areas will rebound, and the sales of coal mines and shipping companies will accelerate, driving coal prices in producing areas to remain firm.