From December 3 to December 7, the price of coke futures fluctuated and rebounded. The main contract of 1905 rose to a maximum of 2,074 yuan / ton. The reason, on the one hand, was affected by the temporary agreement between China and the United States to stop adding new tariffs, and the macro-level was improved, and the coke futures price stabilized and rebounded. On the other hand, due to the sharp drop in spot prices of coke in the early period, some coking enterprises suffered losses. The willingness to price is strong. Last week, there was a slight rebound in the price of low-priced goods, and the price of coke was supported.

The daily chart of the main contract of coke futures J1905 shows that the 5th, 10th, and 20th moving averages turn heads upward, and the 40th and 60th moving averages extend downward. From the KDJ index, the K and D lines form a golden cross and extend upwards, and the K and D values are in the 50-100 range. In addition, from the MACD indicator, the DIFF line and the DEA line form a golden cross, and the MACD green column turns red. On the whole, the short-term technical aspects of the coke 1905 contract continue to strengthen, and will be dominated by shocks in the near future.

In terms of coke supply, last week, the operating rate of coking enterprises nationwide was generally stable. Due to the improvement of air quality in East China, the limited production capacity of coking enterprises in Shandong and Jiangsu decreased, but some coking enterprises in Shanxi and Hebei were slightly affected by environmental protection and limited production. According to the statistics of relevant institutions, as of December 7, the operating rate of coking plants with a capacity of less than 1 million tons was 75.54%, which was flat at the same time; the operating rate of coking plants with a capacity of 1 million tons to 2 million tons was 74.17%, a decrease of 1.25 percentage points from the previous month. The operating rate of coking plants with a capacity of more than 2 million tons was 79.13%, an increase of 3.34 percentage points from the previous month. Recently, Shanxi Province issued a notice saying that it will verify the compliance of local coking enterprises, determine the incomplete procedures such as filing, environmental assessment, land and safety production, and the list of 4.3 m coke ovens that have not passed the national industry access. The previous shutdown was in place. In the later period, coke supply will be further suppressed, which will benefit the coke futures price.

In terms of downstream demand, in the near future, the environmental protection and production restriction policies for the heating season in North China and East China continued to be implemented, resulting in an increase in the maintenance of blast furnaces in steel mills. Last week, the overall blast furnace operating rate in the country declined slightly. According to institutional statistics, as of December 7, the operating rate of blast furnaces in 163 steel mills nationwide was 65.88%, a decrease of 0.83 percentage points from the previous month. Last week, the spot price of steel continued to rebound, stimulating the enthusiasm of steel mills to produce, coupled with the improvement of weather conditions, the blast furnace operating rate may continue to rebound in the later period, coke demand will stabilize and rebound, boosting the coke market.

On the macro level, the market generally predicts that the pace of the Fed's interest rate hike will slow down next year. In recent trading days, the US dollar trend has fallen from a high level, the pressure on the depreciation of the RMB has decreased, and the domestic macro-level has stabilized, which is good for black varieties.

In summary, the macro-level improvement, coke supply pressure slowdown, downstream demand is stable, it is expected that the coke futures price will be mainly shocked rebound in the near future, the main target price of 1905 contract is 2100 yuan / ton.