Around the "May 1st" holiday, downstream demand continued to pick up. The price of billet in Tangshan, Hebei has been rising all the way. After the "May 1st" holiday, it once rushed to 5350 yuan/ton. The price of finished products generally rose by 80 yuan/ton to 200 yuan/ton, and the price of imported iron ore exceeded the 200 US dollar/ton mark.

In the first week after the "May Day" holiday (May 6 to May 8), the enthusiasm for prices of mainstream varieties in the domestic market only increased, and prices continued to rise. As of May 8, in 24 mainstream spot markets across the country, the average price of rebar has increased by RMB 90/ton to RMB 200/ton, which is an increase of RMB 400/ton from before the "May 1st" holiday; the average price of hot coils has increased by RMB 20/ton. Tons ~ 180 yuan/ton, up 350 yuan/ton compared to before the "May 1st" holiday; the average price of the medium board increased from 30 yuan/ton to 110 yuan/ton, up 350 yuan/ton from before the "May 1st" holiday. Under the current market conditions, downstream terminals have a strong wait-and-see sentiment, but under the strong promotion of demand, most terminals have to accept high prices.

"May is the peak season for steel demand. In some regions in China, supply continues to fall short of demand. Steel companies have taken orders and increased the volume. The market is bullish. However, the current market is mainly to absorb the benefits of festivals, and market participants must beware of the risk of prices rising and falling. "On May 10, Li Yuejin, manager of the futures department of Shanxi Iron and Steel Co., Ltd., made an analysis and prediction of the steel market trend after the "May 1st" holiday in an interview with the author.

At present, the first quarter economic operation data of 31 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) across the country have all been released. Data shows that in the first quarter, the year-on-year GDP growth rate of all parts of the country exceeded double digits, and the main indicators rebounded significantly, generally achieving a good start. In the first quarter, my country's GDP reached 24,931 billion yuan, an increase of 18.3% year-on-year. However, the Politburo meeting of the CPC Central Committee held on April 30 clearly pointed out that it is necessary to look at the economic performance data of the first quarter of this year dialectically. The current economic recovery is uneven and the foundation is unstable; it is necessary to make good use of the window period with less pressure for stable growth to promote The economy is stable while improving, and the supply-side structural reform is deepened; the domestic large-scale circulation and the domestic and international dual-circulation blockages are opened up.

Based on this, Li Yuejin predicts that the future fiscal policy and monetary policy will not turn sharply, and will continue to maintain a neutral pattern, and macroeconomic policies will focus more on deepening supply-side structural reforms.

In April, my country's manufacturing PMI (Purchasing Managers Index) reached 51.1%, down 0.8% from the previous month. Li Yuejin said that from the general slight decline in the manufacturing PMI sub-indices in April, it can be seen that after the second quarter, market demand growth has slowed down.

According to Li Yuejin, the current international market still maintains a momentum of recovery. Crude steel output has reached a high level in recent years, but there is still room for pig iron output to reach the high point. Li Yuejin believes that there is uncertainty about whether the market outlook can further maintain price increases. In the first quarter of this year, domestic crude steel output reached 270 million tons. Under the background of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology’s request to reduce crude steel output, the market’s expectations for production restrictions are strong, which will indirectly restrain the price of raw materials such as iron ore, scrap steel, billets, and coke. Continued to rise sharply.

In addition, on May 1, the adjustment of the export tax rebate policy for steel products was officially implemented, and the domestic trade supply may increase as a result. According to statistics from the General Administration of Customs, in the first quarter of this year, my country exported 17.682 million tons of steel products, a year-on-year increase of 23.8%; cumulative imports of steel products were 3.718 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 17.0%. Due to the economic recovery in foreign countries and the increase in demand for steel, there is a large gap between domestic and international steel prices. Therefore, in the first quarter, my country's steel exports increased significantly year-on-year, and domestic trade was in short supply. The adjustment of import and export tariffs on iron and steel products is conducive to meeting the increasing domestic demand for iron and steel due to economic development.

Li Yuejin believes that the current high prices of black products are the result of a short-term mismatch of supply and demand and monetary easing caused by the global economic recovery. Under the background of carbon peaks and carbon neutrality, the reduction of crude steel production and supply contraction will further push up steel prices. price. The downstream manufacturing industry is facing greater operating pressure, and some downstream companies that are unable to effectively transmit the cost of raw materials will enter a state of no profit or even loss. Therefore, cautious on-demand procurement has become the mainstream operation method in the market.

"Overall, there is still a gap in market demand at this stage, and steel prices still have momentum in the later stage. However, it is expected that the fundamentals of supply and demand will shift from tight balance to easing in the short term, and steel prices may usher in a rational adjustment after high shocks. "Li Yuejin said.