Recently, the global economic situation is half the difference: the EU and Japan are worse than expected, and the US economic situation is better than the previous forecast. Despite the demand side and poor consumer performance, investment, exports, and government consumption expenditures and investment all performed well, boosting the economy, making the US GDP growth of 3.2% in the first quarter, exceeding market expectations. Looking forward, the US economy is expected to be stable in 2019 and there will be no recession. At the same time, the Fed will not raise interest rates during the year, which is beneficial to the global commodity market. In addition, the United Kingdom and the European Union reached an agreement on the extension of the Brexit, and the deadline was postponed until October 31. The risk of hard Brexit is eliminated in the short term, which is a relative positive for the EU and the UK economy.

Sino-US trade negotiations are still going on, and the two sides are more likely to reach an agreement in the first half of the year. The problems of the United States itself have led to the reconciliation of Trump and the Federal Reserve, and the external environment facing our country has improved. However, it is expected that the US will not cancel the 10% tariff imposed on China's exports last September. The impact of tariffs imposed in the previous period on China’s merchandise exports will be further reflected.