Global steel market looming stagflation trend in April 2019
Apr. 17, 2019
At the beginning of April, the international steel market stagfed the trend of stagflation. As of April 12, the global steel benchmark price index of 117.2 points rose by 0.5% on a week-on-week basis (the increase was converging), and the month-on-month rate rose by 0.3% (the increase was converging). 6.3% (expanded increase), down 6.1% year-on-year. Among them: flat steel index of 108.4 points, month-on-month increase of 0.1% (increased convergence); long product index of 127.2 points, month-on-month increase of 0.8% (increase in convergence); Asian index of 120.4 points, month-on-month increase of 1.4% (increase in convergence). The index of China in Asia was 123 points, up 1.3% month-on-month (the increase was converging); the Americas index was 139.6 points, down 0.1% month-on-month (from flat to down); Europe index was 98.8 points, down 0.8% month-on-month (from upside down) fall). Combined with the fundamentals forecast, the international steel market in the second half of April may continue to differentiate.
Global crude steel production capacity will increase by 4%-5% from 2019-2021. According to the OECD announcement, by the end of 2018, global crude steel production capacity was 2,234.1 million tons, a slight decrease of 0.3% year-on-year, continuing the trend of continuous decline in crude steel production capacity since 2016 and 2017. However, it is important to note that there will be a large number of capacity under construction or planned to be built in 2019-2021. This will increase global production capacity by 4%-5%.
The demand for steel in the Philippines this year may increase by 5%-6%. Mr. Cola, the president of the Philippine Steel Association, said that the Philippines' GDP growth target for this year is 6-7%, and the country's steel consumption may increase by 5-6% to a record 11.1 million tons.
In the next two years, India's steel consumption will exceed 100 million tons. The Indian Iron and Steel Association predicts that in the construction, capital goods and railway industries, India's steel demand in 2019 and 2020 is expected to maintain an annual growth rate of more than 7%. In terms of fiscal year, India's steel demand in the 2019-2020 fiscal year and 2020-2021 fiscal year will increase by 7.2%, and steel consumption may exceed 100 million tons.
Nippon Steel & Sumitomo Gold changed its name to Nippon Steel. From April 1st, Japan’s Nippon Steel & Sumitomo Metal was renamed Japan Steel, and Hashimoto Hideo (63) became the president of Japan Steel Corporation.