"In October, under the background of weak supply and demand, the fundamentals of the steel market will continue to improve, the supply and demand pattern of iron ore will be further relaxed, and the tight balance of'double coke' (coke, coking coal) is also expected to be broken. There are still many upside opportunities." On September 30, when the "Golden 9" transitioned to the "Silver 10", all parties in the market began to summarize the market trend in September and predict and analyze the market trend in October. In the live broadcast of "October Steel Market Outlook and Marketing Strategy Recommendations", Wang Jianhua, the chief analyst of my steel network, predicted the trend of the "Silver Ten" steel market, which attracted more market participants' attention.

In Wang Jianhua's view, dual control of energy consumption and "dual control" of steel production capacity is not a single-choice question, but a full-choice question of "necessary but also". He predicted that under the background of dual control of energy consumption and "dual control" of steel production capacity and output, the fundamentals of the steel market are expected to continue to improve, and there is still room for flexibility in steel prices in the future.

The center of gravity of steel prices in the third quarter moves up month by month

In the live broadcast event, Wang Jianhua summarized the steel market in September, and its characteristics are manifested in several "certainties".

The first certainty is that the price of steel fluctuates upward as the fundamentals continue to improve, showing a pattern of ups and downs in phases. Survey data show that in September, the five major domestic steel products inventory fell by more than 2.5 million tons. As of September 29, the composite steel price index rose by 254 points. Among them, the price of rebar and wire rod rose by 555 points and 500 points respectively, the price of plate and hot-rolled coil rose by 115 points and 86 points respectively, and the price of cold-rolled coil fell slightly by 3 points. "From these data, it can be seen that the construction steel market is significantly better than the plate market." Wang Jianhua said.

The second certainty is that iron ore has come out of a sharp decline. According to Wang Jianhua, in September, the 62% grade Australian ore price fell the most by more than US$51.35/ton, and once fell to US$100.2/ton. The main iron ore contract fell to the lowest 606 yuan/ton, which not only broke multiple downside supports. It broke the expectation of a sharp rebound under the "double festival" (Mid-Autumn Festival, National Day) replenishment held by many market participants.

The third certainty is that the spot spot of the "double-focus" futures will be loose or fall at a high level. In September, the main coking coal contract fell from the highest 3847 yuan/ton to the lowest 3124 yuan/ton, down 723 yuan/ton, a drop of 18.8%; the coking coal main contract fell from the highest 3099 yuan/ton to the lowest 2,626 yuan/ton, down 473 yuan/ton. Yuan/ton, a decrease of 15.3%.

Wang Jianhua concluded: “Looking back at the third quarter, the comprehensive average steel prices in July, August, and September continued to rise, and the price center moved upward month by month.”