The Central Economic Work Conference held recently has deployed economic work in 2020, and has even more prominent "stable words". On the one hand, the "six stability" is used to drive macroeconomic work, to achieve stable growth, promote reform, adjust the structure, benefit the people's livelihood, prevent risks, and maintain stability, maintain economic operation in a reasonable range, and ensure the comprehensive construction of a well-off society and the "13th Five-Year Plan" period. "The plan ended successfully. On the other hand, adhere to the new development concept, adhere to the main line of supply-side structural reform, adhere to reform and opening up as the driving force, and promote high-quality development. On the whole, both stable short-term economic operation and high-quality development should be guided by the new development concept; both stable and cyclical growth on the demand side and structural reform on the supply side should be emphasized, and some structural features in economic operation should be targeted. Imbalance.

Insist on new development concept

This central economic work conference has a lot of attention on high-quality development, which shows that adhering to the new development concept and achieving high-quality development is the inevitable direction for China's economy in the future. The high-quality development priorities mentioned at the meeting are as follows: innovation-driven and reform and opening up, improving economic competitiveness, and modern economic system construction; agricultural supply-side reform and rural revitalization, increasing farmers' income; technological system reform; basic research and innovation system, talent discovery, Cultivation and incentive mechanism; strategic industry development and manufacturing upgrade, advanced manufacturing clusters and industrial basic capabilities, modernization of the industrial chain; specialization of the production service industry and high-end value chain; high-quality and diversification of the life service industry Senior care services and inclusive education services; high-quality tourism; market-oriented development of the sports fitness industry; regional policies and spatial layout; world-class innovation platforms and growth poles: coordinated development of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, integrated development of the Yangtze River Delta, Guangdong, Hong Kong, and Macao Construction of the Greater Bay Area and construction of the Xiong'an New District. The above topics are all directions that investment can focus on in 2020.

In summary, favorable factors that are conducive to improving economic expectations and boosting risk appetite are accumulating. In 2020, economic operation and risk asset price performance are expected to receive positive support. Next year should be a year of gradual restoration of the economic and equity markets. With the advancement of reforms, long-term structural problems can be gradually solved. After the gear shifting, China's economy is expected to enter a new era of high-quality development.

Deepening reform and opening up

In terms of import, export, and wider opening up, 2020 is expected to be "a step forward". The meeting pointed out that it is necessary to promote the stability and quality of foreign trade, guide the development of diversified export markets, reduce the overall level of tariffs, give full play to the role of the pilot field of the reform and opening up of the free trade pilot zone, actively participate in the reform of the WTO, and accelerate the negotiation of multi-lateral free trade agreements.

Overall, China's approach to opening to the outside world is a multi-pronged approach to strive for a higher level of opening up. This direction is clear.

In terms of deepening reform, key reforms are inevitable. It is not difficult to find that market reforms, state-owned enterprise reforms, property rights and factor allocation reforms, land plan management reforms, fiscal and taxation system reforms, financial system reforms, and capital market reforms have entered or are about to enter deep-water areas. It is believed that the top-level design will be continuously improved and promoted as a whole. Only in this way can we really boost China's factor resource allocation efficiency, resolve and alleviate the contradiction between the old production relationship and the new type of productivity, and stimulate potential growth vitality.

New ideas in policy thinking

Judging from the key points of counter-cyclical regulation, the content provided by this conference presents some new features.

First, the counter-cyclical adjustment of fiscal and monetary policies is further balanced. Fiscal policy emphasizes "improving quality and increasing efficiency". In the future, it is expected to focus on structural optimization. It is unlikely that the government's target deficit rate will exceed 3%. It is unlikely that the local debt quota will significantly exceed this year's level. Monetary policy is more likely to be the main tool for countercyclical adjustments in the coming year. Therefore, in terms of infrastructure construction, more emphasis is placed on strategic and network-based necessary construction.

Second, adhere to the "no housing and speculation" policy, fully implement the long-term management and regulation mechanism of stabilizing land prices, housing prices, and expectations to promote stable and healthy development of the real estate market. In the future, the real estate policy will focus on "fully implementing the policy according to the city", and local governments can adjust relevant policies according to local economic operations and market changes. This is of critical significance for stabilizing expectations and preventing the real estate market from impacting the economic cycle. Establishing a long-term mechanism for real estate market management should focus on the supply side to truly achieve long-term healthy and orderly development of the market and meet the reasonable housing needs of the people in the process of urbanization follow-up and regional economic centralized development.