Tianjin Xinyue Industrial and Trade Co., Ltd.
Tianjin Xinyue Industrial and Trade Co., Ltd.
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Demand will only be postponed, but will not be absent

Oct. 13, 2021

"Demand is indeed an important factor dragging down the recent performance of steel prices. This is a fact. Especially after the country has controlled demand to curb the rise in commodity prices, real estate has been greatly affected. Why is the real estate industry focused so much?" Wang Jianhua explained First, the real estate industry has the widest range of related industries; second, the financing of the real estate industry squeezes out manufacturing and private financing; third, the real estate industry suppresses the increase of residents’ willingness to consume; fourth, from a global perspective, real estate Excessive credit creation can easily lead to a financial crisis. Fifth, my country's macro leverage ratio will reach 279.4% at the end of 2020, which is at a high level globally. Once the economy experiences a downturn, the risk is greater.


“It can be seen that the regulation of real estate is not only imperative, but also has to overcome all difficulties. The state has also taken a number of active measures in this regard. The Politburo meeting of the Central Committee clearly pointed out that in the second half of this year, it is necessary to stick to the overall work of seeking progress while maintaining stability. The tone, the requirement to form a physical workload at the end of this year and the beginning of next year, as well as the formulation of "appropriately advance infrastructure construction", all give clear signals." Wang Jianhua said.

Demand will only be postponed, but will not be absent

In addition, infrastructure construction has also been affected by financial pressure, profit and loss pressure, and the disturbance of the new crown pneumonia epidemic. The progress has been slow, especially the financial pressure has the greatest impact. The Politburo meeting clearly stated that a proactive fiscal policy must enhance policy effectiveness, and a prudent monetary policy must maintain reasonable and abundant liquidity. In this context, the central and local governments have issued a number of regulatory policies. Wang Jianhua believes that precisely because of these inter-cyclical adjustment policies, it is believed that steel demand will not fail to come, but will only be late. Therefore, it is not appropriate to be overly bearish on the demand at the end of this year.


"Some people say that the dual control of energy consumption has caused the downstream steel companies to stop production, which will affect demand. It should be noted that most of these downstream companies are not high-energy-consuming companies. It is only because of the previous inactions of individual local management departments and companies that they have to' 'One size fits all', the later period will definitely gradually move towards precise control." Wang Jianhua said, "Therefore, the impact of these downstream companies on demand is only temporary, demand will only be delayed, and the intensity may even be increased in the later period. It is not ruled out that demand is not weak in the off-season. 'The possibility."


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