In April, the scale of industrial added value rose slightly. Imports and exports picked up after removing seasonal influences, and investment in fixed assets continued to decline. Among them, the infrastructure and real estate investment that had the greatest impact on steel products fell, the growth rate of manufacturing investment rebounded, and consumption was lower than expected. There is a downturn and the pressure on the medium and long-term economic downturn is greater.

Macroeconomics: Investment continued to decline, China and the United States did not have trade wars, and it was difficult to expand domestic demand.

Supply and demand outlook: Production continues to increase, inventory decline slows down, demand downturn inflection confirmation.

Rebar and hot coils are in a relatively large state of discount, the disk reflects the market's bearish expectations for the latter part of the period, the current price difference trend, we believe that the greater probability lies in the decline in the demand side, the spot price more quickly down to repair the base difference.

The fundamentals of steel are currently at high supply, high profits, and relatively high inventory levels. The decline in mid- to long-term demand and weakening demand in the peak season will put pressure on prices and maintain the bearish outlook.