Since the beginning of August, the coke J2101 contract price has generally fluctuated in a wide range under the support of the basic orientation and the expected support of coking capacity reduction. In recent trading days, the coke price rebounded strongly after hitting a low of 1877 yuan/ton. As of September 4, the closing price of the J2101 contract was 2030.5 yuan/ton, and the coke price returned to the rising channel, but there was a slight pressure in the early stage, and the short-term still need to pay attention to the risk of callback.

In terms of spot, the spot price of coke in August moved strongly. After three rounds of price cuts were proposed in July, the coke price went back to the price increase stage. Judging from the acceptance of downstream steel mills, in September, the pace of coke price increase and the difficulty of landing have increased compared with May and June. However, the current demand for coke is still high, and steel mills are slightly less confident in resisting price increases.

As of from September 5th -6th , steel mills in Shandong Province, Shanxi Province, and Tangshan City, Hebei Province have all agreed to the second round of price increases of 50 yuan/ton. This also means that this round of coking steel enterprises still has the upper hand in the game. Whether the third round of price increases will be ushered in the later stage, we need to pay attention to changes in downstream demand.

From August 31st to September 4th, the survey data of relevant institutions showed that the average ton coke profit of the sample coke enterprises remained at about 270 yuan. If the second round of 50 yuan/ton price increase is added, the coke enterprises will make profits. Will return to more than 300 yuan/ton again, at a relatively high level in the past two years, which greatly stimulated the enthusiasm of coke enterprises to start construction. As of September 4, the capacity utilization rate of coking enterprises dropped slightly to 81.02%, a decrease of 0.41 percentage points from the previous month and an increase of 1.76 percentage points from the same period last year. In September last year, due to factors such as weaker demand, the capacity utilization rate of coking enterprises dropped significantly. This year is different from last year. The real demand for coke remains at a high level, and there is no obvious sign of weakening for the time being, and the profits of current coke enterprises are significantly higher than last year. Therefore, it is expected that the status quo of Jiao Qi Gao's construction this year will continue, and there may not be a cliff-like decline.

At present, both ends of coke supply and demand are relatively strong, and the overall situation is tight. The supply-side capacity reduction policy is gradually put on the agenda, boosting the sentiment of the futures market. According to the previous situation of production capacity withdrawal in Shandong and Jiangsu provinces, the actual production capacity withdrawal time is mostly near the time node required by the document, and it is necessary to pay attention to the rhythm in the later period. Recently, the policy of reducing coking capacity in Shanxi Province has been put on the agenda. Taiyuan City has given a clear attitude, requiring all enterprises to complete the withdrawal on time, and it is not excluded that other cities will also increase policy efforts. At the same time, the release of new coking capacity is relatively slow. In addition, considering the arrival of the traditional peak season for the demand for ferrous metals "Golden Nine and Silver Ten", coke prices or the overall strong operation, the profits of coke enterprises will also remain high.