Recently, Li Zhongshuang, general manager of Shanghai Ruikun Metal Materials Co., Ltd., said in an interview with China Metallurgical News that from late February to March, the cold and hot rolled coil market will maintain a steady state, and prices will rise steadily.

According to industry statistics, in January, the prices of cold and hot rolled coils rose and fell, but the increase was greater than the decline, and the overall trend was oscillating upward. By the end of January, the price of 1.0mm cold rolled sheet in the Shanghai market rose by RMB 10/ton to RMB 50/ton in one month; the price of 5.75 mm hot rolled coil rose by RMB 140/ton, which was significantly higher than the price of cold rolled sheet. . In the last trading week of January, the domestic hot-rolled coil market price rose steadily, with the price of 5.75 mm HRC in Nanjing, Fuzhou, Nanchang, Wuhan, Tianjin, Taiyuan, Changchun, Chengdu and Lanzhou rising by 20 Yuan/ton~60 yuan/ton; the market price of cold-rolled coil is mainly stable, and prices in some regions have risen. The price of 1.0mm cold-rolled sheet in Hangzhou, Hefei, Beijing, Tianjin, Kunming and Guiyang has increased by 20 yuan. / ton ~ 100 yuan / ton.

After the Spring Festival holiday, the cold and hot rolled coil market started well, and the first trading day ushered in a “open door”. In the Shanghai market, the price of hot and cold rolled coils started to rise. On February 11, the price of hot rolled coils rose by 110 yuan/ton, and the price of cold rolled coils rose by 50 yuan/ton. After a few days, the price of hot and cold rolled coils has risen and fallen. Among them, the price of hot rolled coil continued to fluctuate and fell, and fell to RMB 120/ton on February 14; the price of cold rolled coil continued to rise and went all the way.

In the Shanghai market, the price of 1.0mm cold rolled sheet produced by Ansteel rose from 4270 yuan/ton on February 1 to 4350 yuan/ton on February 14, an increase of 80 yuan/ton; and sunshine production 5.5mm-11.75mm×1500 The price of millimeter × C hot rolled coil fell from 3,740 yuan / ton on February 1 to 3,730 yuan / ton on February 14, down 10 yuan / ton. The market price of hot and cold rolled coils is mixed and different.

Li Zhongshuang believes that domestic hot rolled coil prices will rise slightly from late February to March, and the probability of a smooth start for cold rolled coil prices will be greater. In addition, some factors affecting the market of hot and cold rolled coils need attention and attention, mainly in the following three aspects:

The first is the change in market demand. The data shows that in recent months, the production and sales of major customers of hot and cold rolled coils such as automobiles and home appliances have been in poor condition. In 2018, the monthly production and sales volume of automobiles decreased slightly compared with the same period of the previous year. In December 2018, the automobile production volume was 2.482 million units, a decrease of 0.65% from the previous month and a decrease of 18.39% from the same period of last year. The sales volume was 2.661 million units, up 4.46% from the previous month and down 13.03% from the same period last year. The production and sales situation of the home appliance industry is not satisfactory. In December 2018, the home appliance industry entered the off-season. The offline retail sales of refrigerators fell by 27.6% year-on-year. The growth rate of retail sales fell by 23.4% year-on-year; the retail sales of washing machines fell by 28.7% year-on-year, and the retail sales increased. The year-on-year decline was 21.4%. In 2019, the manufacturing industry was not good. In January, the Caixin China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) was 48.3%, down from 1.4 percentage points in the previous month and hit a new low since March 2016. Accordingly, the demand for hot and cold rolled coils in the automotive, home appliance and other industries is difficult to increase, or will be reduced.

The second is the change in supply conditions. During the Spring Festival holiday, in addition to the impact of maintenance, environmental protection policies and other factors, steel mills basically maintained normal production, production did not significantly reduce, the supply of cold and hot rolled coil market is still difficult to reduce. The data shows that in January 2019, the total social stocks of steel products in five major categories of 20 cities in the country rebounded from the previous month. The stock of hot rolled coil was 1.73 million tons, an increase of 70,000 tons from December 2018, an increase of 4.4%. Among them, the steel market inventory was 1.53 million tons, an increase of 40,000 tons from the previous month; the port inventory was 200,000 tons, an increase of 30,000 tons. The inventory of cold rolled coils was 1.8 million tons, an increase of 2 million tons from the previous month, an increase of 0.1%. Among them, the steel market inventory was 1.48 million tons, a decrease of 20,000 tons from the previous month; the port inventory was 320,000 tons, an increase of 20,000 tons. Due to the recent demand has not yet started, the inventory of cold and hot rolled coils is expected to continue to increase.

The third is the change in the ex-factory price policy of steel mills. Before the Spring Festival, more than 10 large steel mills such as Baowu, Shagang and Anshan Iron and Steel Co., Ltd. successively introduced the price policy from January to February 2019. The ex-factory prices of cold and hot rolled coils have risen and fallen, and they have risen and fallen. The ex-factory price of some steel mills rose by RMB 30/ton to RMB 100/ton, and some mills' factory prices were lowered slightly. Many steel mills maintained their stability. The change in the ex-factory price of the steel mill indicates that the steel mill is cautious about the market outlook.