Recently, coke has become more popular. Within two months, the spot price of coke has risen for six consecutive years.

In 2020, from February to mid-April, coke fell by 4 rounds. From late April to now, coke has risen by 6 rounds.

"Last weekend, there was a sixth round of coke price increase, which is still in the process of negotiation. At present, a few steel mills in Tangshan and Northeast China have accepted this round of coke price hikes, while steel mills in East and North China are still in the past week. The library is dominated, and the probability of accepting this rise is relatively high, and it is expected to complete the rise within this week. After the rise, coke has risen a total of 6 rounds, 300 yuan/ton." said Zhang Yuan, a coke researcher at Yide Futures.

Everbright Futures Double Coke Researcher Wang Xintong told the Futures Daily that the current price of coke has risen for six consecutive times, accumulating 300 yuan/ton, with a 50 yuan/ton increase per round. In April, as the price of coke in the previous period fell by 4 rounds, the profit of coking industry was close to the breakeven line. In particular, the production rate of coking plants in the northwest region was at a loss, and the operating rate of some coking plants declined. However, as the blast furnace operating rate continued to rise, the coke supply and demand structure began to change, the total inventory began to go to the warehouse, and coke began to rise.

The author found that earlier, the coking enterprise operating rate resumed earlier, resulting in the pre-coke coke inventory continued to be in the process of accumulation. As of April 3, the full-caliber coke inventory rebounded to around 13.3 million tons, reaching this year's high. From mid-April onwards, the profitability of downstream steel mills was acceptable. After the heating season ended, the operating rate gradually recovered, purchasing sentiment increased, and coking plants have been willing to increase. But at this time, the overall inventory level of the coke market is still high, and steel mills have strong resistance, and the increase has not been accepted.

With the gradual increase in the operating rate of steel mills, the continued removal of coke from the coke, and the speed of destocking has gradually accelerated, the sentiment of the coke market has also increased. At the beginning of May, the full-caliber coke inventory has dropped to 12.5 million tons, and the coke enterprises have increased their mood Increased, the first round of rising has started one after another.

As of last weekend, the overall domestic coke inventory has dropped to 11.7 million tons. Although the speed of destocking has slowed down after entering mid-June, it still remains in the state of destocking, and coke companies are still feeling high.

Wang Xintong believes that with the reduction of coal consumption in Shandong, some enterprises have begun to limit production by 30%-50%. At the same time, environmental protection in Shanxi has restricted production, which has reduced the supply of coke production sites. In addition, the market expects that coking companies in Xuzhou will cut capacity and reduce supply, but high demand will push coke futures up. Against this background, the Coke Futures Index rose from 1598 yuan/ton in early April to a recent high of 1989 yuan/ton, an increase of 400 yuan/ton.

Recently, the spot price of coke has risen for six consecutive days. What is the profit situation? According to a reporter from the Futures Daily, with the sharp increase in coke prices, coking profits have risen. At present, the average national coking ton coke profit is 300 yuan / ton-400 yuan / ton, different in different regions. In terms of profit, the current profit of steel is 130 yuan/ton-150 yuan/ton. In the past, the profit of steel mills was higher than the profit of coking. Once the profit of steel mills contracted, the profit of coking will be squeezed. The supply and demand are tight, and the profit of coke has doubled to that of steel. This is also a rare situation in recent years, and the voice of the coking industry has increased.

Zhang Yuan told the Futures Daily reporter that the current profitability of coking enterprises has surpassed that of steel mills. After the end of the fifth round of rise (because the sixth round has not been accepted), the gross profit of Shandong is 450 yuan/ton. The gross profit of Xingtai, Handan, Hebei is about 380 yuan/ton-400 yuan/ton. The gross profit of Luliang area is about 320 yuan/ton. All have exceeded the profit level of local steel mills by 100 yuan/ton.

In fact, from the current market perspective, the operating rates of steel mills and coke enterprises have reached a relatively high point. The gap between coke supply and demand has gradually narrowed, and the speed of destocking has also slowed down. Especially since last week, there has been a slight decline in the supply of hot metal from steel mills, indicating that there is a certain possibility that the demand for coke in the steel mills has already exceeded the high point. It is expected that from July, without the influence of external factors, such as environmental protection, coal control and other policies, the overall rate of domestic coke removal will slow down significantly.

It is understood that the current operating rate of coking enterprises continues to rise, and the production restriction in Shanxi has been relaxed. At the same time, the production in some parts of Shandong has been increased slightly due to high profits. Therefore, although production is restricted in some regions, the operation in other regions is actively supplemented. rise. In terms of inventory, the blast furnace start high continues to rise, steel mills are willing to restock, and steel mill coke stocks have increased. The inventory of coking plants continued to decline, and the total inventory continued to decline. On the demand side, the blast furnace starts to continue to rise, and the production of pig iron increases, but the steel begins to accumulate, focusing on changes in downstream demand.

Wang Xintong believes that the supply-end production limit and coke support are strong, but the current coke price is high, and some downstream are in a wait-and-see state. At the same time, coking profits have greatly compressed steel profits. Short-term supply and demand are tight. The spot is still strong, and the market is waiting for subsequent fundamental changes. Mainly. From the perspective of port prices, there have been a total of 4 rounds of rise in May, the fifth round of rise was started in early June, and the sixth round of rise was started last week. The interval between them is different. The rise in the early period is faster, and the later rise is slightly more difficult.

"After the fifth round of rising, some steel mills have increased their raw material purchases, but the inventory is still low. However, due to the slowdown of coke destocking and the proposal of the sixth round of rising, the difficulty of coke rising in the later period may increase. But in July, we still need to pay attention to the following two points. First, whether the 4.3-meter coke oven in Anyang, Henan will be produced as scheduled; second, whether the coal control policy in Shandong will be strictly implemented in the second half of the year." Zhang Yuan said.