The main contract price of coke futures J2105 has continued to rebound since bottoming out on March 24. The rebound in futures prices has brought two to three rounds (200 yuan/ton to 300 yuan/ton) of increase expectations for coke spot prices. However, the first round of increases by coking companies in various regions was basically hedged by the ninth round of downgrades by steel mills. The spot price of coke was temporarily operating steadily and failed to reverse the downward trend. Affected by this, the rebound trend of coke futures prices last week (April 6 to April 9) has slowed down, and the overall trend is oscillating around 2,400 yuan/ton, and there seems to be signs of waiting for the spot price to follow the rise. On April 12, most coke companies in Shanxi, Hebei, and Shandong issued a notice letter again, stating that the price of dry quenching was increased by 110 yuan/ton, and the price of wet quenching was increased by 100 yuan/ton, starting on April 13. carried out. Downstream steel mills have not yet given a clear response to this, and the later situation needs to be tracked continuously. At present, the port spot quotations are showing a continuous upward trend, helping the spot prices of origins to rise and fall.

In terms of profit, the survey data last week showed that due to the temporary stable operation of coke prices, the average profit per ton of coke companies did not change much at 320 yuan, a slight decrease of 10 yuan from the previous week. However, the market previously reported that due to the rapid rise in coal prices and the sharp rise in coal blending costs, some coking companies have been on the verge of loss; the prices of finished products have continued to run at a high level recently, and coking companies have strong expectations for profits from steel mills.

From the perspective of supply and demand data, on the supply side, last Friday (April 9) data showed that the capacity utilization rate of 100 sample coking companies was 78.20%, a slight increase of 0.1 percentage point from the previous month and a year-on-year increase of 3.04 percentage points. In terms of policy, currently in Shanxi Province, affected by environmental inspections, coke companies generally limit production by 10% to 30%, which has caused a marginal decline in coke supply, but the scope of production restriction has not yet continued to expand, and capacity utilization is gradually tend towards balance. In addition, the capacity utilization rate of coking enterprises in East China is relatively stable, maintaining at around 74%.

From the demand side, last week, the blast furnace ironmaking capacity utilization rate of 247 steel plants was 86.94%, little change from the previous month, an increase of 1.43 percentage points year-on-year; the average daily molten iron output of blast furnaces was 2,314,300 tons, an increase of 60,000 tons from the previous month. A year-on-year increase of 38,000 tons. At present, the steel mills in Tangshan City, Hebei Province still have limited production, and the molten iron output data has gradually stabilized. If the scope of the blast furnace production limit of the steel mills is not expanded in the later period, 2.3 million tons may already be the bottom of the average daily molten iron output, and entering the second quarter, With the pull of demand in the traditional peak season, superimposed steel mills are profitable and have high production enthusiasm. The output of molten iron may be expected to gradually recover. In the later stage, it is necessary to always pay attention to whether the market will have factors that are not conducive to the rebound in demand.

In terms of inventory, the total coke inventory last week was 7,715,600 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 27,100 tons and a year-on-year decrease of 1,302,900 tons. From the overall trend, the total coke inventory has peaked in stages, and the initial trend of destocking has gradually formed. Among them, the coke inventories of steel mills and coking plants have fallen for two consecutive weeks; in ports, the recent activity of traders has continued to increase, and the enthusiasm of taking goods has increased, making the shipment situation of coking plants continue to improve, and the increase in port inventory has exceeded 100,000 for two consecutive weeks.

On the whole, some areas of Shanxi Province are currently restricting production to varying degrees. This is combined with the recent increase in the enthusiasm of traders to obtain goods. The coking enterprises have smoother shipments and the coke market has increased sentiment. However, the blast furnaces of the steel mills in Tangshan City, Hebei Province are still affected. Due to the impact of production restrictions, the demand for coke has not yet improved, the upward drive of coke itself is still weak, and futures prices may continue to fluctuate. It is recommended that participants still need to be cautious in their operations. In addition, it should be noted that the J2105 contract is approaching the delivery month, and the main contract is gradually changing to the J2109 contract.